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dankane comments on Causal decision theory is unsatisfactory - LessWrong
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Well, perhaps. I think that the bigger problem is that under reasonable priors P(Newcomb) and P(anti-Newcomb) are both so incredibly small that I would have trouble finding a meaningful way to approximate their ratio.
How confident are you that UDT actually one-boxes?
Also yeah, if you want a better scenario where UDT loses see my PD against 99% prob. UDT and 1% prob. CDT example.