The palm example is a bit confusing. Palms don't really tell the future: There is no direct causal link (unless someone listens to a palm-reader!). It would be much better if you gave a different example of confusing causality and correlation where there really was correlation.

It reminds me of Eliezer's example of the machine learning system that seemed to be finding camouflaged tanks, but in fact was confused by the sunniness of the different sets of photos: As far as I can tell that never happened.

Then there is the decision theory example of Solomon wanting to sleep with Bathsheba, which confusingly morphs into a discussion of Oedipal complexes if you're not paying attention. (As Eliezer points out, this example was a originally a follow-on to another story involving King David and Bathsheba, not that that makes it any less confusing.

And it appears that architectural spandrels, after which biological spandrels are named, are not really spandrels) in the originally intended sense. What a mess!

On the other hand, I am glad that Eliezer worked hard to change the standard "Smoking Lesion" story to a fictional chewing gum example, since smoking indeed causes cancer. But that was a fictional story, and in coming up with a real (or at least plausibly real story about toxoplasmosis.