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ChristianKl comments on A Cost- Benefit Analysis of Immunizing Healthy Adults Against Influenza - LessWrong
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I don't think most effective way to convince a child of getting a child is through rational argument. Appearing really confident is important for convincing but being really confident for the sake of convincing others is not a good habit to have when you seek for the truth.
You don't use rational argument because it's the most effective way to convince a child, you use rational argument because it's the most effective way to teach a child the use of rational argument. (which as a side benefit, eventually makes rational argument the most effective way to convince the child)
Kids notice these things! And not just the 'smart' ones.
In general you are probably right but for LW parents this might be different as rationality-related traits are probably heritable that about the same level (0.6) than e.g. IQ. Judging from my sons (8, 10) I'd guess that they'd be able to follow the reasoning and likely given the choice decide pro-innoculation. But then they are not very squeamish to begin with and wouldn't value a shot that bad.