Lumifer comments on A Cost- Benefit Analysis of Immunizing Healthy Adults Against Influenza - LessWrong

14 Post author: Fluttershy 11 November 2014 04:10AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 12 November 2014 07:52:03PM 1 point [-]

The best source I can give you on how flu shots don't cause people to have serious adverse responses would be the Demicheli paper cited in the references section.

It's behind the paywall, you don't happen to have a copy handy?

Also, it's interesting to look at the Demicheli abstract. It says:

Twenty five reports of studies involving 59,566 people were included. The recommended live aerosol vaccines reduced the number of cases of serologically confirmed influenza by 48% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24% to 64%), whilst recommended inactivated parenteral vaccines had a vaccine efficacy of 70% (95% CI 56% to 80%). The yearly recommended vaccines had low effectiveness against clinical influenza cases: 15%(95% CI 8% to 21%) and 25% (95% CI 13% to 35%) respectively. Overall the percentage of participants experiencing clinical influenza decreased by 6%. Use of the vaccine significantly reduced time off work but only by 0.16 days for each influenza episode (95% CI 0.04 to 0.29 days); Analysis of vaccines matching the circulating strain gave higher estimates of efficacy, whilst inclusion of all other vaccines reduced the efficacy.

An interesting question is what are the "yearly" vaccines which have such low effectiveness?

Comment author: Nornagest 12 November 2014 08:00:24PM *  2 points [-]

This might be the paper you're looking for, although OP cites a 2014 version with an additional author; perhaps an update?

(ETA: Here's the 2014 version. And here's what appears to be the Coleman paper, just for giggles.)

Comment author: Lumifer 13 November 2014 03:10:52AM 1 point [-]

Aha, thanks. As usual, the paper is more interesting and nuanced than its rendering designed to drive home a single point...