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joaolkf comments on When the uncertainty about the model is higher than the uncertainty in the model - LessWrong
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On October 18, 1987, what sort of model of uncertainty of models one would have to have to say the uncertainty over the 20-sigma estimative was enough to allow it to be 3-sigma? 20-sigma, give 120 or take 17? Seems a bit extreme, and maybe not useful.
This seems to depend almost entirely on what other models you had. A 1% belief in a wider model (say one using a Cauchy distribution rather than a normal one) might have been sufficient to make the result considerably less surprising.