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shminux comments on When the uncertainty about the model is higher than the uncertainty in the model - LessWrong
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Seems that (a generalization of) the equation 1 in the paper by Toby Ord http://arxiv.org/abs/0810.5515 linked in the comments to Yvain's post is something like what you are looking for.
This post is looking for salient examples of that type of behaviour.