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mwengler comments on When the uncertainty about the model is higher than the uncertainty in the model - LessWrong
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Stuart, since you asked I spent a little bit of time to write up what I had found and include a bunch more figures. If you are interested, they can be found here: http://kazart.blogspot.com/2014/12/stock-price-volatility-log-normal-or.html
Cheers!