However, the fact remains that investment decisions are all about expected value. Risk vs. reward. Risk isn't inherently bad, it just needs to be balanced by the reward. An in the case of superstar industries, the potential reward is huge.

There are pitfalls to expected value. Volatility is a killer. A lot of risk management is devoted to reducing the impact of volatility on your position. Even Kelly bets, which maximize long-term expected return, are subject to wide swings. It's okay to take on a few long shots with a high reward, but the longer the shot the smaller the fraction of your bankroll you want to bet (note that by the Kelly criterion, this holds true even if the potential returns are huge).

People seem to view large ventures like starting startups as a roll of the dice. They say things like, "9 out of 10 startups fail". I don't see things that way. I don't see it as "a roll of the dice". I see it as a deterministic puzzle that can be solved.

Any solution you can implement, a competitor can potentially implement as well. You can't deterministically beat such a competitor.