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Arkanj3l comments on Graphical Assumption Modeling - LessWrong
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Comments (21)
Perhaps 'Fermi estimate' was not the best term to use but I couldn't think of an equally understandable but better one. It could be called simply 'estimate', but I think the important thing here is that its used very similarly to how a Fermi estimate would be (with very high uncertainty of the inputs, and done in a very simple manner). What would you call it? (http://lesswrong.com/lw/h5e/fermi_estimates/).
I vouch for Ozzie Estimate.
I take shminux's point to be primarily one of ease, or maybe portability. The need to understand sensitivity in heuristical estimation is a real one, and I also believe that your tools here may be the right approach for a different level of scale than was originally conceived by Fermi. It might be worth clarifying the kinds of decisions that require the level of analysis involved with your method to prevent confusion.
Have you seen the work of Sanjoy Mahajan? Street-Fighting Mathematics, or The Art of Insight in Science and Engineering?
I actually watched his TED talk last night. Will look more into his stuff.
The main issues I'm facing are understanding the math behind combining estimates and actually making the program right now. However, he definitely seems to be one of the top world experts on actually making these kinds of models.
If you keep the project open source, I might be able help with the programming (although I don't know much about Rails, I could help with the client side). The math is a mystery to me, too, but can't you charge ahead with a simple geometric mean for the combination of estimates while you figure it out?