JoshuaZ comments on The Truth About Mathematical Ability - LessWrong
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I'd certainly defer to you in relation to subject matter knowledge (my knowledge of number theory really only extends through 1965 or so), but this is not the sense that I've gotten from speaking with the best number theorists.
When I met Shimura, he was extremely dismissive of contemporary number theory research, to a degree that seemed absurd to me (e.g. he characterized papers in the Annals of Mathematics as "very mediocre.") I would ordinarily be hesitant to write about a private conversation publicly, but he freely and eagerly expresses his views freely to everyone who he meets. Have you read The Map of My Life? He's very harsh and cranky and perhaps even paranoid, but that doesn't undercut his track record of being an extremely fertile mathematician. I reflected on his comments and learned more over the years (after meeting with him in 2008) his position came to seem progressively more sound (to my great surprise!).
A careful reading of Langlands' Reflexions on receiving the Shaw Prize hints that he thinks that the methods that Taylor and collaborators have been using to prove theorems such as the Sato-Tate conjecture won't have lasting value, though he's very guarded in how he expresses himself. I remember coming across a more recent essay where he was more explicit and forceful, but I forget where it is (somewhere on his website, sorry, I realize that this isn't so useful). It's not clear to me that Taylor would disagree – he may explicitly be more committed to solving problems in the near term than by creating work of lasting value.
One can speculate these views are driven by arrogance, but they're not even that exotic outside of the set of people who have unambiguously done great work. For example, the author of the Galois Representations blog, who you probably know of, wrote in response to Jordan Ellenberg:
apparently implicitly characterizing his own work as insignificant. And there aren't very many number theorists as capable as him.
I'll volunteer another reason not to necessarily pay attention to my viewpoint: I'm pretty clearly one of those weaker mathematicians, so I have obvious motivations for seeing all of that side work as relevant.
I suspect that one can get similar viewpoints from people who more or less think the opposite but that they aren't very vocal because it is closer to being a default viewpoint, but my evidence for this is very weak. It is also worth noting that when one does read papers by the top named people, they often cite papers from people who clearly aren't in that top, using little constructions or generalizing bits or the like.
I'll note that I think that there are people other than top researchers who have contributed enormously to the mathematical community through things other than research. For example, John Baez is listed amongst the mathematicians who influenced MathOverflow participants the most, in the same range as Fields medalists and historical greats, based on his expository contributions.
Yes, this is true and a good point. It can serve as a starting point for estimating effect sizes.