"in 50 years, what will the best mathematicians think about it?"

How do you make a priori judgments on who the best mathematicians are going to be? In your opinion, what qualities/achievements would put someone in the group of best mathematicians?

Anyway, I think that if one adopts this perspective and takes a careful look at current research using Bayesian reasoning, one is led to the conclusion that almost all of it will be considered to be irrelevant (confidence ~80%).

How different would your deductions be if you were living in a different time period? How much does that depend on the areas in mathematics that you are considering in that reasoning?