Curiouskid comments on The Truth About Mathematical Ability - LessWrong
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More later, but just a brief remark – I think that one issue is that the top ~200 mathematicians are of such high intellectual caliber that they've plucked all of the low hanging fruit and that as a result mathematicians outside of that group have a really hard time doing research that's both interesting and original. (The standard that I have in mind here is high, but I think that as one gains perspective one starts to see that superficially original research is often much less so than it looks.) I know many brilliant people who have only done so once over an entire career.
Outside of pure math, the situation is very different – it seems to me that there's a lot of room for "normal" mathematically talented people to do highly original work. Note for example that the Gale-Shapley theorem was considered significant enough so that Gale and Shapley were awarded a Nobel prize in economics for it, even though it's something that a lot of mathematicians could have figured out in a few days (!!!). I think that my speed dating project is such an example, though I haven't been presenting it in a way that's made it clear why.
Of course, if you're really committed to pure math in particular, my observation isn't so helpful, but my later posts might be.
I'm not qualified to say judge the accuracy of these claims, but I was speaking with a PhD in physics who said that he thought that only ~50 people in theoretical physics were doing anything important.