Comment on Is Scott Alexander bad at math?

Wed, 06 May 2015 10:45:31 GMT

People do think of conditional probabilities that way, one just has to be careful not to conflate with p(IF event1 THEN event2), which is a probability of a disjunction, and quite different from p(event2 | event1). Conditioning is kind of weird, Simpsons paradox is a paradox because we are really bad at processing what conditioning actually means.

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