I'd prefer not to allow 0 and 1 as available credences. But if 0 remained as an option I would just interpret it as "very close to 0" and then keep using the app, though if a future version of the app showed me my Bayes score then the difference between what the app allows me to choose (0%) and what I'm interpreting 0 to mean ("very close to 0") could matter.
I think it's misleading to just drop in the statement that 0 and 1 are not probabilities.
There is a reasonable and arguably better definition of probabilities which excludes them, but it's not the standard one, and it also has costs -- for example probabilities are a useful tool in building models, and it is sometimes useful to use probabilities 0 and 1 in models.
(aside: it works as a kind of 'clickbait' in the original article title, and Eliezer doesn't actually make such a controversial statement in the post, so I'm not complaining about that)
Hi all,
I put this calibration test together this morning. It pulls from a trivia API of over 150,000 questions so you should be able to take this many, many times before you start seeing repeats.
http://www.2pih.com/caltest.php
A few notes:
1. The questions are "Jeopardy" style questions so the wording may be strange, and some of them might be impossible to answer without further context. On these just assign 0% confidence.
2. As the questions are open-ended, there is no answer-checking mechanism. You have to be honest with yourself as to whether or not you got the right answer. Because what would be the point of cheating at a calibration test?
I can't think of anything else. Please let me know if there are any features you would want to see added, or if there are any bugs, issues, etc.
**EDIT**
As per suggestion I have moved this to the main section. Here are the changes I'll be making soon:
Here are changes I'll make eventually:
Here are the changes that are done: