CronoDAS comments on "Risk" means surprise - LessWrong

6 Post author: PhilGoetz 22 May 2015 04:47AM

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Comment author: CronoDAS 22 May 2015 06:55:50AM 10 points [-]

I'm reminded of a silly question I once asked, that I'd like to ask an investment professional:

I have $500,000 in cash-equivalent assets. Normally this would be a pretty good thing, but I also have a $1,000,000 debt to Tony Soprano that comes due in one year, and if I don't pay it, he'll have me whacked. I could take the money to a Las Vegas roulette wheel, bet on red, and have a slightly less than 50/50 chance of not being killed. (I'll worry about the IRS later.) Can you recommend an alternative investment?

You're asking the simulator something similar. If you ever can't take out as much money as you wanted, it counts as a failure, regardless of whether you're $1 short or $100,000 short. This isn't necessarily bad, though...