fortyeridania comments on "Risk" means surprise - LessWrong

6 Post author: PhilGoetz 22 May 2015 04:47AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (29)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: fortyeridania 22 May 2015 07:31:54AM *  1 point [-]
  • I think they can only mean either "variance" or "badness of worst case"

In the context of financial markets, risk = variance from the mean (often measured using the standard deviation). My finance professor emphasized that although in everyday speech "risk" refers only to bad things, in finance we talk of both downside and upside risk.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 22 May 2015 01:10:59PM *  3 points [-]

So "risk" really does mean surprise to them. Do you think this impairs their ability to reason about risk? E.g., would they try to minimize their risk because that's a good thing, for the ordinary definition of risk, but then actually minimize their variance? Do they talk to clients using the word "risk", and being aware on one level that they mean something different, yet not explain the difference?

Comment author: Lumifer 22 May 2015 03:12:42PM 1 point [-]

In the context of financial markets, risk = variance from the mean

That it not true, or, rather, not entirely true. VAR is very widely used in the real world and it's not variance. I also think Taleb would facepalm at this definition X-)