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shminux comments on "Risk" means surprise - LessWrong
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...Yet it has, multiple times in the last 100 years, if you invest a lump sum. Regular contributions are a different story.
The US stock market? No, it hasn't. I checked a graph of it before writing that. "Time the market is down" is not the time between peaks on the graph. It's the time between periods when stocks are a better investment than bonds. For the Great Depression, that was 3 years.