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shminux comments on "Risk" means surprise - LessWrong
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That's no reason to tell someone with hundreds of thousands of dollars to put half of it in bonds. The market isn't going to stay down for 10 years.
...Yet it has, multiple times in the last 100 years, if you invest a lump sum. Regular contributions are a different story.
The US stock market? No, it hasn't. I checked a graph of it before writing that. "Time the market is down" is not the time between peaks on the graph. It's the time between periods when stocks are a better investment than bonds. For the Great Depression, that was 3 years.