Lumifer comments on "Risk" means surprise - LessWrong

6 Post author: PhilGoetz 22 May 2015 04:47AM

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Comment author: fortyeridania 22 May 2015 07:31:54AM *  1 point [-]
  • I think they can only mean either "variance" or "badness of worst case"

In the context of financial markets, risk = variance from the mean (often measured using the standard deviation). My finance professor emphasized that although in everyday speech "risk" refers only to bad things, in finance we talk of both downside and upside risk.

Comment author: Lumifer 22 May 2015 03:12:42PM 1 point [-]

In the context of financial markets, risk = variance from the mean

That it not true, or, rather, not entirely true. VAR is very widely used in the real world and it's not variance. I also think Taleb would facepalm at this definition X-)