gjm comments on "Risk" means surprise - LessWrong

6 Post author: PhilGoetz 22 May 2015 04:47AM

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Comment author: gjm 22 May 2015 05:30:06PM 3 points [-]

Nope, actually stocks don't still win when what you want is to maximize widthdrawals subject to keeping Pr(run out of money) very small. The 98% level for bonds only is between $15k and $16k; for 50:50 it's a little better, somewhere between $16000 and $17000; for stocks only it's about $12k

(Another thing the simulator notably doesn't let you do: adjust your portfolio allocation over time.)

Comment author: PhilGoetz 25 May 2015 09:35:33PM 0 points [-]

That's correct.