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PhilGoetz comments on "Risk" means surprise - LessWrong
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I'm not good at it. The people who are good at it seem to be arguing about it more this year. Surely there'll be some bump when the Fed raises interest rates. I know that's supposed to be priced into the market, but it doesn't appear to be, based on the lack of any permanent market change after each of the Fed's prior surprising statements. Possibly the market is playing a game of chicken.
It is likely that there are no people who are good at timing the market. I am not aware of anybody that is good at timing the market. The best investor in the world, Warren Buffett, does not time the market at all. His high investing returns over more than half a century do suggest he has some credibility when he suggests that no one can time the market successfully.
Why would you expect to be?