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abramdemski comments on Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence - LessWrong
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I agree, it's essentially different. It has to do with misaligned goals (AKA perverse incentives), similar to the principle-agent problem and the concept of lost purposes. This is all related to the tails-come-apart phenomenon as well, in that tails-come-apart is like a statistical version of the statement "you cannot serve two masters".