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To reduce astronomical waste: take your time, then go very fast

43 Stuart_Armstrong 13 July 2013 04:41PM

While we dither on the planet, are we losing resources in space? Nick Bostrom has an article on astronomical waste, talking about the vast amounts of potentially useful energy that we're simply not using for anything:

As I write these words, suns are illuminating and heating empty rooms, unused energy is being flushed down black holes, and our great common endowment of negentropy is being irreversibly degraded into entropy on a cosmic scale. These are resources that an advanced civilization could have used to create value-structures, such as sentient beings living worthwhile lives.

The rate of this loss boggles the mind. One recent paper speculates, using loose theoretical considerations based on the rate of increase of entropy, that the loss of potential human lives in our own galactic supercluster is at least ~1046 per century of delayed colonization.

On top of that, galaxies are slipping away from us because of the exponentially accelerating expansion of the universe (x axis in years since Big Bang, cosmic scale function arbitrarily set to 1 at the current day):

At the rate things are going, we seem to be losing slightly more than one galaxy a year. One entire galaxy, with its hundreds of billions of stars, is slipping away from us each year, never to be interacted with again. This is many solar systems a second; poof! Before you've even had time to grasp that concept, we've lost millions of times more resources than humanity has even used.

So it would seem that the answer to this desperate state of affairs is to rush thing: start expanding as soon as possible, greedily grab every hint of energy and negentropy before they vanish forever.

Not so fast! Nick Bostrom's point was not that we should rush things, but that we should be very very careful:

However, the lesson for utilitarians is not that we ought to maximize the pace of technological development, but rather that we ought to maximize its safety, i.e. the probability that colonization will eventually occur.

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We Don't Have a Utility Function

42 [deleted] 02 April 2013 03:49AM

Related: Pinpointing Utility

If I ever say "my utility function", you could reasonably accuse me of cargo-cult rationality; trying to become more rational by superficially immitating the abstract rationalists we study makes about as much sense as building an air traffic control station out of grass to summon cargo planes.

There are two ways an agent could be said to have a utility function:

  1. It could behave in accordance with the VNM axioms; always choosing in a sane and consistent manner, such that "there exists a U". The agent need not have an explicit representation of U.

  2. It could have an explicit utility function that it tries to expected-maximize. The agent need not perfectly follow the VNM axioms all the time. (Real bounded decision systems will take shortcuts for efficiency and may not achieve perfect rationality, like how real floating point arithmetic isn't associative).

Neither of these is true of humans. Our behaviour and preferences are not consistent and sane enough to be VNM, and we are generally quite confused about what we even want, never mind having reduced it to a utility function. Nevertheless, you still see the occasional reference to "my utility function".

Sometimes "my" refers to "abstract me who has solved moral philosophy and or become perfectly rational", which at least doesn't run afoul of the math, but is probably still wrong about the particulars of what such an abstract idealized self would actually want. But other times it's a more glaring error like using "utility function" as shorthand for "entire self-reflective moral system", which may not even be VNMish.

But this post isn't really about all the ways people misuse terminology, it's about where we're actually at on the whole problem for which a utility function might be the solution.

As above, I don't think any of us have a utility function in either sense; we are not VNM, and we haven't worked out what we want enough to make a convincing attempt at trying. Maybe someone out there has a utility function in the second sense, but I doubt that it actually represents what they would want.

Perhaps then we should speak of what we want in terms of "terminal values"? For example, I might say that it is a terminal value of mine that I should not murder, or that freedom from authority is good.

But what does "terminal value" mean? Usually, it means that the value of something is not contingent on or derived from other facts or situations, like for example, I may value beautiful things in a way that is not derived from what they get me. The recursive chain of valuableness terminates at some set of values.

There's another connotation, though, which is that your terminal values are akin to axioms; not subject to argument or evidence or derivation, and simply given, that there's no point in trying to reconcile them with people who don't share them. This is the meaning people are sometimes getting at when they explain failure to agree with someone as "terminal value differences" or "different set of moral axioms". This is completely reasonable, if and only if that is in fact the nature of the beliefs in question.

About two years ago, it very much felt like freedom from authority was a terminal value for me. Those hated authoritarians and fascists were simply wrong, probably due to some fundamental neurological fault that could not be reasoned with. The very prototype of "terminal value differences".

And yet here I am today, having been reasoned out of that "terminal value", such that I even appreciate a certain aesthetic in bowing to a strong leader.

If that was a terminal value, I'm afraid the term has lost much of its meaning to me. If it was not, if even the most fundamental-seeming moral feelings are subject to argument, I wonder if there is any coherent sense in which I could be said to have terminal values at all.

The situation here with "terminal values" is a lot like the situation with "beliefs" in other circles. Ask someone what they believe in most confidently, and they will take the opportunity to differentiate themselves from the opposing tribe on uncertain controversial issues; god exists, god does not exist, racial traits are genetic, race is a social construct. The pedant answer of course is that the sky is probably blue, and that that box over there is about a meter long.

Likewise, ask someone for their terminal values, and they will take the opportunity to declare that those hated greens are utterly wrong on morality, and blueness is wired into their very core, rather than the obvious things like beauty and friendship being valuable, and paperclips not.

So besides not having a utility function, those aren't your terminal values. I'd be suprised if even the most pedantic answer weren't subject to argument; I don't seem to have anything like a stable and non-negotiable value system at all, and I don't think that I am even especially confused relative to the rest of you.

Instead of a nice consistent value system, we have a mess of intuitions and hueristics and beliefs that often contradict, fail to give an answer, and change with time and mood and memes. And that's all we have. One of the intuitions is that we want to fix this mess.

People have tried to do this "Moral Philosophy" thing before, myself included, but it hasn't generally turned out well. We've made all kinds of overconfident leaps to what turn out to be unjustified conclusions (utilitarianism, egoism, hedonism, etc), or just ended up wallowing in confused despair.

The zeroth step in solving a problem is to notice that we have a problem.

The problem here, in my humble opinion, is that we have no idea what we are doing when we try to do Moral Philosophy. We need to go up a meta-level and get a handle on Moral MetaPhilosophy. What's the problem? What are the relevent knowns? What are the unknowns? What's the solution process?

Ideally, we could do for Moral Philosphy approximately what Bayesian probability theory has done for Epistemology. My moral intuitions are a horrible mess, but so are my epistemic intuitions, and yet we more-or-less know what we are doing in epistemology. A problem like this has been solved before, and this one seems solvable too, if a bit harder.

It might be that when we figure this problem out to the point where we can be said to have a consistent moral system with real terminal values, we will end up with a utility function, but on the other hand, we might not. Either way, let's keep in mind that we are still on rather shaky ground, and at least refrain from believing the confident declarations of moral wisdom that we so like to make.

Moral Philosophy is an important problem, but the way is not clear yet.

Pinpointing Utility

57 [deleted] 01 February 2013 03:58AM

Following Morality is Awesome. Related: Logical Pinpointing, VNM.

The eternal question, with a quantitative edge: A wizard has turned you into a whale, how awesome is this?

"10.3 Awesomes"

Meditate on this: What does that mean? Does that mean it's desirable? What does that tell us about how awesome it is to be turned into a whale? Explain. Take a crack at it for real. What does it mean for something to be labeled as a certain amount of "awesome" or "good" or "utility"?

What is This Utility Stuff?

Most of agree that the VNM axioms are reasonable, and that they imply that we should be maximizing this stuff called "expected utility". We know that expectation is just a weighted average, but what's this "utility" stuff?

Well, to start with, it's a logical concept, which means we need to pin it down with the axioms that define it. For the moment, I'm going to conflate utility and expected utility for simplicity's sake. Bear with me. Here are the conditions that are necessary and sufficient to be talking about utility:

  1. Utility can be represented as a single real number.
  2. Each outcome has a utility.
  3. The utility of a probability distribution over outcomes is the expected utility.
  4. The action that results in the highest utility is preferred.
  5. No other operations are defined.

I hope that wasn't too esoteric. The rest of this post will be explaining the implications of those statements. Let's see how they apply to the awesomeness of being turned into a whale:

  1. "10.3 Awesomes" is a real number.
  2. We are talking about the outcome where "A wizard has turned you into a whale".
  3. There are no other outcomes to aggregate with, but that's OK.
  4. There are no actions under consideration, but that's OK.
  5. Oh. Not even taking the value?

Note 5 especially. You can probably look at the number without causing trouble, but if you try to treat it as meaningful for something other than condition 3 and 4, even accidentally, that's a type error.

Unfortunately, you do not have a finicky compiler that will halt and warn you if you break the rules. Instead, your error will be silently ignored, and you will go on, blissfully unaware that the invariants in your decision system no longer pinpoint VNM utility. (Uh oh.)

Unshielded Utilities, and Cautions for Utility-Users

Let's imagine that utilities are radioactive; If we are careful with out containment procedures, we can safely combine and compare them, but if we interact with an unshielded utility, it's over, we've committed a type error.

To even get a utility to manifest itself in this plane, we have to do a little ritual. We have to take the ratio between two utility differences. For example, if we want to get a number for the utility of being turned into a whale for a day, we might take the difference between that scenario and what we would otherwise expect to do, and then take the ratio between that difference and the difference between a normal day and a day where we also get a tasty sandwich. (Make sure you take the absolute value of your unit, or you will reverse your utility function, which is a bad idea.)

So the form that the utility of being a whale manifests as might be "500 tasty sandwiches better than a normal day". We have chosen "a normal day" for our datum, and "tasty sandwiches" for our units. Of course we could have just as easily chosen something else, like "being turned into a whale" as our datum, and "orgasms" for our units. Then it would be "0 orgasms better than being turned into a whale", and a normal day would be "-400 orgasms from the whale-day".

You say: "But you shouldn't define your utility like that, because then you are experiencing huge disutility in the normal case."

Wrong, and radiation poisoning, and type error. You tried to "experience" a utility, which is not in the defined operations. Also, you looked directly at the value of an unshielded utility (also known as numerology).

We summoned the utilities into the real numbers, but they are still utilities, and we still can only compare and aggregate them. The summoning only gives us a number that we can numerically do those operations on, which is why we did it. This is the same situation as time, position, velocity, etc, where we have to select units and datums to get actual quantities that mathematically behave like their ideal counterparts.

Sometimes people refer to this relativity of utilities as "positive affine structure" or "invariant up to a scale and shift", which confuses me by making me think of an equivalence class of utility functions with numbers coming out, which don't agree on the actual numbers, but can be made to agree with a linear transform, rather than making me think of a utility function as a space I can measure distances in. I'm an engineer, not a mathematician, so I find it much more intuitive and less confusing to think of it in terms of units and datums, even though it's basically the same thing. This way, the utility function can scale and shift all it wants, and my numbers will always be the same. Equivalently, all agents that share my preferences will always agree that a day as a whale is "400 orgasms better than a normal day", even if they use another basis themselves.

So what does it mean that being a whale for a day is 400 orgasms better than a normal day? Does it mean I would prefer 400 orgasms to a day as a whale? Nope. Orgasms don't add up like that; I'd probably be quite tired of it by 15. (remember that "orgasms" were defined as the difference between a day without an orgasm and a day with one, not as the utility of a marginal orgasm in general.) What it means is that I'd be indifferent between a normal day with a 1/400 chance of being a whale, and a normal day with guaranteed extra orgasm.

That is, utilities are fundamentally about how your preferences react to uncertainty. For example, You don't have to think that each marginal year of life is as valuable as the last, if you don't think you should take a gamble that will double your remaining lifespan with 60% certainty and kill you otherwise. After all, all that such a utility assignment even means is that you would take such a gamble. In the words of VNM:

We have practically defined numerical utility as being that thing for which the calculus of mathematical expectations is legitimate.

But suppose there are very good arguments that have nothing to do with uncertainty for why you should value each marginal life-year as much as the last. What then?

Well, "what then" is that we spend a few weeks in the hospital dying of radiation poisoning, because we tried to interact with an unshielded utility again (utilities are radioactive, remember? The specific error is that we tried to manipulate the utility function with something other than comparison and aggregation. Touching a utility directly is just as much an error as observing it directly.

But if the only way to define your utility function is with thought experiments about what gambles you would take, and the only use for it is deciding what gambles you would take, then isn't it doing no work as a concept?

The answer is no, but this is a good question because it gets us closer to what exactly this utility function stuff is about. The utility of utility is that defining how you would behave in one gamble puts a constraint on how you would behave in some other related gambles. As with all math, we put in some known facts, and then use the rules to derive some interesting but unknown facts.

For example, if we have decided that we would be indifferent between a tasty sandwich and a 1/500 chance of being a whale for tomorrow, and that we'd be indifferent between a tasty sandwich and a 30% chance of sun instead of the usual rain, then we should also be indifferent between a certain sunny day and a 1/150 chance of being a whale.

Monolithicness and Marginal (In)Dependence

If you are really paying attention, you may be a bit confused, because it seems to you that money or time or some other consumable resource can force you to assign utilities even if there is no uncertainty in the system. That issue is complex enough to deserve its own post, so I'd like to delay it for now.

Part of the solution is that as we defined them, utilities are monolithic. This is the implication of "each outcome has a utility". What this means is that you can't add and recombine utilities by decomposing and recombining outcomes. Being specific, you can't take a marginal whale from one outcome and staple it onto another outcome, and expect the marginal utilities to be the same. For example, maybe the other outcome has no oceans for your marginal whale.

For a bigger example, what we have said so far about the relative value of sandwiches and sunny days and whale-days does not necessarily imply that we are indifferent between a 1/250 chance of being a whale and any of the following:

  • A day with two tasty sandwiches. (Remember that a tasty sandwich was defined as a specific difference, not a marginal sandwich in general, which has no reason to have a consistent marginal value.)

  • A day with a 30% chance of sun and a certain tasty sandwich. (Maybe the tasty sandwich and the sun at the same time is horrifying for some reason. Maybe someone drilled into you as a child that "bread in the sun" was bad bad bad.)

  • etc. You get the idea. Utilities are monolithic and fundamentally associated with particular outcomes, not marginal outcome-pieces.

However, as in probability theory, where each possible outcome technically has its very own probability, in practice it is useful to talk about a concept of independence.

So for example, even though the axioms don't guarantee in general that it will ever be the case, it may work out in practice that given some conditions, like there being nothing special about bread in the sun, and my happiness not being near saturation, the utility of a marginal tasty sandwich is independent of a marginal sunny day, meaning that sun+sandwich is as much better than just sun as just a sandwich is better than baseline, ultimately meaning that I am indifferent between {50%: sunny+sandwich; 50% baseline} and {50%: sunny; 50%: sandwich}, and other such bets. (We need a better solution for rendering probability distributions in prose).

Notice that the independence of marginal utilities can depend on conditions and that independence is with respect to some other variable, not a general property. The utility of a marginal tasty sandwich is not independent of whether I am hungry, for example.

There is a lot more to this independence thing (and linearity, and risk aversion, and so on), so it deserves its own post. For now, the point is that the monolithicness thing is fundamental, but in practice we can sometimes look inside the black box and talk about independent marginal utilities.

Dimensionless Utility

I liked this quote from the comments of Morality is Awesome:

Morality needs a concept of awfulness as well as awesomeness. In the depths of hell, good things are not an option and therefore not a consideration, but there are still choices to be made.

Let's develop that second sentence a bit more. If all your options suck, what do you do? You still have to choose. So let's imagine we are in the depths of hell and see what our theories have to say about it:

Day 78045. Satan has presented me with three options:

  1. Go on a date with Satan Himself. This will involve romantically torturing souls together, subtly steering mortals towards self-destruction, watching people get thrown into the lake of fire, and some very unsafe, very nonconsensual sex with the Adversary himself.

  2. Paperclip the universe.

  3. Satan's court wizard will turn me into a whale and release me into the lake of fire, to roast slowly for the next month, kept alive by twisted black magic.

Wat do?

They all seem pretty bad, but "pretty bad" is not a utility. We could quantify paperclipping as a couple hundred billion lives lost. Being a whale in the lake of fire would be awful, but a bounded sort of awful. A month of endless horrible torture. The "date" is having to be on the giving end of what would more or less happen anyway, and then getting savaged by Satan. Still none of these are utilities.

Coming up with actual utility numbers for these in terms of tasty sandwiches and normal days is hard; it would be like measuring the microkelvin temperatures of your physics experiment with a Fahrenheit kitchen thermometer; in principle it might work, but it isn't the best tool for the job. Instead, we'll use a different scheme this time.

Engineers (and physicists?) sometimes transform problems into a dimensionless form that removes all redundant information from the problem. For example, for a heat conduction problem, we might define an isomorphic dimensionless temperature so that real temperatures between 78 and 305 C become dimensionless temperatures between 0 and 1. Transforming a problem into dimensionless form is nearly always helpful, often in really surprising ways. We can do this with utility too.

Back to depths of hell. The date with Satan is clearly the best option, so it gets dimensionless utility 1. The paperclipper gets 0. On that scale, I'd say roasting in the lake of fire is like 0.999 or so, but that might just be scope insensitivity. We'll take it for now.

The advantages with this approach are:

  1. The numbers are more intuitive. -5e12 QALYs, -1 QALY, and -50 QALYs from a normal day, or the equivalent in tasty sandwiches, just doesn't have the same feeling of clarity as 0, 1 and .999. (For me at least. And yes I know those numbers don't quite match.)

  2. Not having to relate the problem quantities to far-away datums or drastically misappropriate units (tasty sandwiches for this problem) makes the numbers easier and more direct to come up with. Also we have to come up with less of them. The problem is self-contained.

  3. If defined right, the connection between probability and utility becomes extra-clear. For example: What chance between a Satan-date and a paperclipper would make me indifferent with a lake-of-fire-whale-month? 0.999! Unitless magic!

  4. All confusing redundant information (like negative signs) are removed, which makes it harder to accidentally do numerology or commit a type error.

  5. All redundant information is removed, which means you find many more similarities between problems. The value of this in general cannot be understated. Just look at the generalizations made about Reynolds number! "[vortex shedding] occurs for any fluid, size, and speed, provided that Re between ~40 and 10^3". What! You can just say that in general? Magic! I haven't actually done enough utility problems to know that we'll find stuff like that but I trust dimensionless form.

Anyways, it seems that going on that date is what I ought to do. So did we need a concept of awfulness? Did it matter that all the options sucked? Nope; the decision was isomorphic in every way to choosing lunch between a BLT, a turkey club, and a handful of dirt.

There are some assumptions in that lunch bit, and it's worth discussing. It seems counterintuitive or even wrong, to say that your decision-process faced with lunch should be the same as when faced with a decision in involving torture, rape, and paperclips. The latter seems somehow more important. Where does that come from? Is it right?

This may deserve a bigger discussion, but basically, if you have finite resources (thought-power, money, energy, stress) that are conserved or even related across decisions, you get coupling of "different" decisions in a way that we didn't have here. Your intuitions are calibrated for that case. Once you have decoupled the decision by coming up with the actual candidate options. The depths-of-hell decision and the lunch decision really are totally isomorphic. I'll probably address this properly later, if I discuss instrumental utility of resources.

Anyways, once you put the problem in dimensionless form, a lot of decisions that seemed very different become almost the same, and a lot of details that seemed important or confusing just disappear. Bask in the clarifying power of a good abstraction.

Utility is Personal

So far we haven't touched the issue of interpersonal utility. That's because that topic isn't actually about VNM utility! There was nothing in the axioms above about there being a utility for each {person, outcome} pair, only for each outcome.

It turns out that if you try to compare utilities between agents, you have to touch unshielded utilities, which means you get radiation poisoning and go to type-theory hell. Don't try it.

And yet, it seems like we ought to care about what others prefer, and not just our own self-interest. But it seems like that inside the utility function, in moral philosophy, not out here in decision theory.

VNM has nothing to say on the issue of utilitarianism besides the usual preference-uncertainty interaction constraints, because VNM is about the preferences of a single agent. If that single agent cares about the preferences of other agents, that goes inside the utility function.

Conversely, because VNM utility is out here, axiomized for the sovereign preferences of a single agent, we don't much expect it to show up in there, in a discussion if utilitarian preference aggregation. In fact, if we do encounter it in there, it's probably a sign of a failed abstraction.

Living with Utility

Let's go back to how much work utility does as a concept. I've spent the last few sections hammering on the work that utility does not do, so you may ask "It's nice that utility theory can constrain our bets a bit, but do I really have to define my utility function by pinning down the relative utilities of every single possible outcome?".

Sort of. You can take shortcuts. We can, for example, wonder all at once whether, for all possible worlds where such is possible, you are indifferent between saving n lives and {50%: saving 2*n; 50%: saving 0}.

If that seems reasonable and doesn't break in any case you can think of, you might keep it around as heuristic in your ad-hoc utility function. But then maybe you find a counterexample where you don't actually prefer the implications of such a rule. So you have to refine it a bit to respond to this new argument. This is OK; the math doesn't want you to do things you don't want to.

So you can save a lot of small thought experiments by doing the right big ones, like above, but the more sweeping of a generalization you make, the more probable it is that it contains an error. In fact, conceptspace is pretty huge, so trying to construct a utility function without inside information is going to take a while no matter how you approach it. Something like disassembling the algorithms that produce your intuitions would be much more efficient, but that's probably beyond science right now.

In any case, in the current term before we figure out how to formally reason the whole thing out in advance, we have to get by with some good heuristics and our current intuitions with a pinch of last minute sanity checking against the VNM rules. Ugly, but better than nothing.

The whole project is made quite a bit harder in that we are not just trying to reconstruct an explicit utility function from revealed preference; we are trying to construct a utility function for a system that doesn't even currently have consistent preferences.

At some point, either the concept of utility isn't really improving our decisions, or it will come in conflict with our intuitive preferences. In some cases it's obvious how to resolve the conflict, in others, not so much.

But if VNM contradicts our current preferences, why do we think it's a good idea at all? Surely it's not wise to be tampering with our very values?

The reason we like VNM is that we have a strong meta-intuition that our preferences ought to be internally consistent, and VNM seems to be the only way to satisfy that. But it's good to remember that this is just another intuition, to be weighed against the rest. Are we ironing out garbage inconsistencies, or losing valuable information?

At this point I'm dangerously out of my depth. As far as I can tell, the great project of moral philosophy is an adult problem, not suited for mere mortals like me. Besides, I've rambled long enough.

Conclusions

What a slog! Let's review:

  • Maximize expected utility, where utility is just an encoding of your preferences that ensures a sane reaction to uncertainty.

  • Don't try to do anything else with utilities, or demons may fly out of your nose. This especially includes looking at the sign or magnitude, and comparing between agents. I call these things "numerology" or "interacting with an unshielded utility".

  • The default for utilities is that utilities are monolithic and inseparable from the entire outcome they are associated with. It takes special structure in your utility function to be able to talk about the marginal utility of something independently of particular outcomes.

  • We have to use the difference-and-ratio ritual to summon the utilities into the real numbers. Record utilities using explicit units and datum, and use dimensionless form for your calculations, which will make many things much clearer and more robust.

  • If you use a VNM basis, you don't need a concept of awfulness, just awesomeness.

  • If you want to do philosophy about the shape of your utility function, make sure you phrase it in terms of lotteries, because that's what utility is about.

  • The desire to use VNM is just another moral intuition in the great project of moral philosophy. It is conceivable that you will have to throw it out if it causes too much trouble.

  • VNM says nothing about your utility function. Consequentialism, hedonism, utilitarianism, etc are up to you.

Morality is Awesome

83 [deleted] 06 January 2013 03:21PM

(This is a semi-serious introduction to the metaethics sequence. You may find it useful, but don't take it too seriously.)

Meditate on this: A wizard has turned you into a whale. Is this awesome?

Is it?

"Maybe? I guess it would be pretty cool to be a whale for a day. But only if I can turn back, and if I stay human inside and so on. Also, that's not a whale.

"Actually, a whale seems kind of specific, and I'd be suprised if that was the best thing the wizard can do. Can I have something else? Eternal happiness maybe?"

Meditate on this: A wizard has turned you into orgasmium, doomed to spend the rest of eternity experiencing pure happiness. Is this awesome?

...

"Kindof... That's pretty lame actually. On second thought I'd rather be the whale; at least that way I could explore the ocean for a while.

"Let's try again. Wizard: maximize awesomeness."

Meditate on this: A wizard has turned himself into a superintelligent god, and is squeezing as much awesomeness out of the universe as it could possibly support. This may include whales and starships and parties and jupiter brains and friendship, but only if they are awesome enough. Is this awesome?

...

"Well, yes, that is awesome."


What we just did there is called Applied Ethics. Applied ethics is about what is awesome and what is not. Parties with all your friends inside superintelligent starship-whales are awesome. ~666 children dying of hunger every hour is not.

(There is also normative ethics, which is about how to decide if something is awesome, and metaethics, which is about something or other that I can't quite figure out. I'll tell you right now that those terms are not on the exam.)

"Wait a minute!" you cry, "What is this awesomeness stuff? I thought ethics was about what is good and right."

I'm glad you asked. I think "awesomeness" is what we should be talking about when we talk about morality. Why do I think this?

  1. "Awesome" is not a philosophical landmine. If someone encounters the word "right", all sorts of bad philosophy and connotations send them spinning off into the void. "Awesome", on the other hand, has no philosophical respectability, hence no philosophical baggage.

  2. "Awesome" is vague enough to capture all your moral intuition by the well-known mechanisms behind fake utility functions, and meaningless enough that this is no problem. If you think "happiness" is the stuff, you might get confused and try to maximize actual happiness. If you think awesomeness is the stuff, it is much harder to screw it up.

  3. If you do manage to actually implement "awesomeness" as a maximization criteria, the results will be actually good. That is, "awesome" already refers to the same things "good" is supposed to refer to.

  4. "Awesome" does not refer to anything else. You think you can just redefine words, but you can't, and this causes all sorts of trouble for people who overload "happiness", "utility", etc.

  5. You already know that you know how to compute "Awesomeness", and it doesn't feel like it has a mysterious essence that you need to study to discover. Instead it brings to mind concrete things like starship-whale math-parties and not-starving children, which is what we want anyways. You are already enabled to take joy in the merely awesome.

  6. "Awesome" is implicitly consequentialist. "Is this awesome?" engages you to think of the value of a possible world, as opposed to "Is this right?" which engages to to think of virtues and rules. (Those things can be awesome sometimes, though.)

I find that the above is true about me, and is nearly all I need to know about morality. It handily inoculates against the usual confusions, and sets me in the right direction to make my life and the world more awesome. It may work for you too.

I would append the additional facts that if you wrote it out, the dynamic procedure to compute awesomeness would be hellishly complex, and that right now, it is only implicitly encoded in human brains, and no where else. Also, if the great procedure to compute awesomeness is not preserved, the future will not be awesome. Period.

Also, it's important to note that what you think of as awesome can be changed by considering things from different angles and being exposed to different arguments. That is, the procedure to compute awesomeness is dynamic and created already in motion.

If we still insist on being confused, or if we're just curious, or if we need to actually build a wizard to turn the universe into an awesome place (though we can leave that to the experts), then we can see the metaethics sequence for the full argument, details, and finer points. I think the best post (and the one to read if only one) is joy in the merely good.

A (small) critique of total utilitarianism

35 Stuart_Armstrong 26 June 2012 12:36PM

In total utilitarianism, it is a morally neutral act to kill someone (in a painless and unexpected manner) and creating/giving birth to another being of comparable happiness (or preference satisfaction or welfare). In fact if one can kill a billion people to create a billion and one, one is morally compelled to do so. And this is true for real people, not just thought experiment people - living people with dreams, aspirations, grudges and annoying or endearing quirks. To avoid causing extra pain to those left behind, it is better that you kill off whole families and communities, so that no one is left to mourn the dead. In fact the most morally compelling act would be to kill off the whole of the human species, and replace it with a slightly larger population.

We have many real world analogues to this thought experiment. For instance, it seems that there is only a small difference between the happiness of richer nations and poorer nations, while the first consume many more resources than the second. Hence to increase utility we should simply kill off all the rich, and let the poor multiply to take their place (continually bumping off any of the poor that gets too rich). Of course, the rich world also produces most of the farming surplus and the technology innovation, which allow us to support a larger population. So we should aim to kill everyone in the rich world apart from farmers and scientists - and enough support staff to keep these professions running (Carl Shulman correctly points out that we may require most of the rest of the economy as "support staff". Still, it's very likely that we could kill off a significant segment of the population - those with the highest consumption relative to their impact of farming and science - and still "improve" the situation).

Even if turns out to be problematic to implement in practice, a true total utilitarian should be thinking: "I really, really wish there was a way to do targeted killing of many people in the USA, Europe and Japan, large parts of Asia and Latin America and some parts of Africa - it makes me sick to the stomach to think that I can't do that!" Or maybe: "I really really wish I could make everyone much poorer without affecting the size of the economy - I wake up at night with nightmare because these people remain above the poverty line!"

I won't belabour the point. I find those actions personally repellent, and I believe that nearly everyone finds them somewhat repellent or at least did so at some point in their past. This doesn't mean that it's the wrong thing to do - after all, the accepted answer to the torture vs dust speck dilemma feels intuitively wrong, at least the first time. It does mean, however, that there must be very strong countervailing arguments to balance out this initial repulsion (maybe even a mathematical theorem). For without that... how to justify all this killing?

Hence for the rest of this post, I'll be arguing that total utilitarianism is built on a foundation of dust, and thus provides no reason to go against your initial intuitive judgement in these problems. The points will be:

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Objections to Coherent Extrapolated Volition

10 XiXiDu 22 November 2011 10:32AM

In poetic terms, our coherent extrapolated volition is our wish if we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were, had grown up farther together; where the extrapolation converges rather than diverges, where our wishes cohere rather than interfere; extrapolated as we wish that extrapolated, interpreted as we wish that interpreted.

— Eliezer Yudkowsky, May 2004, Coherent Extrapolated Volition

Foragers versus industry era folks

Consider the difference between a hunter-gatherer, who cares about his hunting success and to become the new tribal chief, and a modern computer scientist who wants to determine if a “sufficiently large randomized Conway board could turn out to converge to a barren ‘all off’ state.”

The utility of the success in hunting down animals and proving abstract conjectures about cellular automata is largely determined by factors such as your education, culture and environmental circumstances. The same forager who cared to kill a lot of animals, to get the best ladies in its clan, might have under different circumstances turned out to be a vegetarian mathematician solely caring about his understanding of the nature of reality. Both sets of values are to some extent mutually exclusive or at least disjoint. Yet both sets of values are what the person wants, given the circumstances. Change the circumstances dramatically and you change the persons values.

What do you really want?

You might conclude that what the hunter-gatherer really wants is to solve abstract mathematical problems, he just doesn’t know it. But there is no set of values that a person “really” wants. Humans are largely defined by the circumstances they reside in.

  • If you already knew a movie, you wouldn’t watch it.
  • To be able to get your meat from the supermarket changes the value of hunting.

If “we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were, and had grown up closer together” then we would stop to desire what we learnt, wish to think even faster, become even different people and get bored of and rise up from the people similar to us.

A singleton is an attractor

A singleton will inevitably change everything by causing a feedback loop between itself as an attractor and humans and their values.

Much of our values and goals, what we want, are culturally induced or the result of our ignorance. Reduce our ignorance and you change our values. One trivial example is our intellectual curiosity. If we don’t need to figure out what we want on our own, our curiosity is impaired.

A singleton won’t extrapolate human volition but implement an artificial set values as a result of abstract high-order contemplations about rational conduct.

With knowledge comes responsibility, with wisdom comes sorrow

Knowledge changes and introduces terminal goals. The toolkit that is called ‘rationality’, the rules and heuristics developed to help us to achieve our terminal goals are also altering and deleting them. A stone age hunter-gatherer seems to possess very different values than we do. Learning about rationality and various ethical theories such as Utilitarianism would alter those values considerably.

Rationality was meant to help us achieve our goals, e.g. become a better hunter. Rationality was designed to tell us what we ought to do (instrumental goals) to achieve what we want to do (terminal goals). Yet what actually happens is that we are told, that we will learn, what we ought to want.

If an agent becomes more knowledgeable and smarter then this does not leave its goal-reward-system intact if it is not especially designed to be stable. An agent who originally wanted to become a better hunter and feed his tribe would end up wanting to eliminate poverty in Obscureistan. The question is, how much of this new “wanting” is the result of using rationality to achieve terminal goals and how much is a side-effect of using rationality, how much is left of the original values versus the values induced by a feedback loop between the toolkit and its user?

Take for example an agent that is facing the Prisoner’s dilemma. Such an agent might originally tend to cooperate and only after learning about game theory decide to defect and gain a greater payoff. Was it rational for the agent to learn about game theory, in the sense that it helped the agent to achieve its goal or in the sense that it deleted one of its goals in exchange for a allegedly more “valuable” goal?

Beware rationality as a purpose in and of itself

It seems to me that becoming more knowledgeable and smarter is gradually altering our utility functions. But what is it that we are approaching if the extrapolation of our volition becomes a purpose in and of itself? Extrapolating our coherent volition will distort or alter what we really value by installing a new cognitive toolkit designed to achieve an equilibrium between us and other agents with the same toolkit.

Would a singleton be a tool that we can use to get what we want or would the tool use us to do what it does, would we be modeled or would it create models, would we be extrapolating our volition or rather follow our extrapolations?

(This post is a write-up of a previous comment designated to receive feedback from a larger audience.)

Morality is not about willpower

9 PhilGoetz 08 October 2011 01:33AM

Most people believe the way to lose weight is through willpower.  My successful experience losing weight is that this is not the case.  You will lose weight if you want to, meaning you effectively believe0 that the utility you will gain from losing weight, even time-discounted, will outweigh the utility from yummy food now.  In LW terms, you will lose weight if your utility function tells you to.  This is the basis of cognitive behavioral therapy (the effective kind of therapy), which tries to change peoples' behavior by examining their beliefs and changing their thinking habits.

Similarly, most people believe behaving ethically is a matter of willpower; and I believe this even less.  Your ethics is part of your utility function.  Acting morally is, technically, a choice; but not the difficult kind that holds up a stop sign and says "Choose wisely!"  We notice difficult moral choices more than easy moral choices; but most moral choices are easy, like choosing a ten dollar bill over a five.  Immorality is not a continual temptation we must resist; it's just a kind of stupidity.

This post can be summarized as:

  1. Each normal human has an instinctive personal morality.
  2. This morality consists of inputs into that human's decision-making system.  There is no need to propose separate moral and selfish decision-making systems.
  3. Acknowledging that all decisions are made by a single decision-making system, and that the moral elements enter it in the same manner as other preferences, results in many changes to how we encourage social behavior.

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Stanislav Petrov Day

33 gwern 26 September 2011 02:49PM

A reminder for everyone: on this day in 1983, Stanislav Petrov saved the world.

It occurs to me this time around that there's an interesting relationship here - 9/26 is forgotten, while 9/11 is remembered. Do something charitable, and not patriotic, sometime today.

Are Deontological Moral Judgments Rationalizations?

38 lukeprog 16 August 2011 04:40PM

In 2007, Chris Matthews of Hardball interviewed David O'steen, executive director of a pro-life organization. Matthews asked:

I have always wondered something about the pro-life movement. If you believe that killing [a fetus] is murder, why don't you bring murder charges or seek a murder penalty against a woman who has an abortion? Why do you let her off, if you really believe it's murder?1

O'steen replied that "we have never sought criminal penalties against a woman," which isn't an answer but a re-statement of the reason for the question. When pressed, he added that we don't know "how she‘s been forced into this." When pressed again, O'steen abandoned these responses and tried to give a consequentialist answer. He claimed that implementing "civil penalties" and taking away the "financial incentives" of abortion doctors would more successfully "protect unborn children."

But this still doesn't answer the question. If you believe that killing a fetus is murder, then a woman seeking an abortion pays a doctor to commit murder. Why don't abortionists want to change the laws so that abortion is considered murder and a woman who has an abortion can be charged with paying a doctor to commit murder? Psychologist Robert Kurzban cites this as a classic case of moral rationalization.2

Pro-life demonstrators in Illinois were asked a similar question: "If [abortion] was illegal, should there be a penalty for the women who get abortions illegally?" None of them (on the video) thought that women who had illegal abortions should be punished as murders, an ample demonstration of moral rationalization. And I'm sure we can all think of examples where it looks like someone has settled on an intuitive moral judgment and then invented rationalizations later.3

More controversially, some have suggested that rule-based deontological moral judgments generally tend to be rationalizations. Perhaps we can even dissolve the debate between deontological intuitions and utilitarian intuitions if we can map the cognitive algorithms that produce them.

Long-time deontologists and utilitarians may already be up in arms to fight another war between Blues and Greens, but these are empirical questions. What do the scientific studies suggest?

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Pluralistic Moral Reductionism

34 lukeprog 01 June 2011 12:59AM

Part of the sequence: No-Nonsense Metaethics

Disputes over the definition of morality... are disputes over words which raise no really significant issues. [Of course,] lack of clarity about the meaning of words is an important source of error… My complaint is that what should be regarded as something to be got out of the way in the introduction to a work of moral philosophy has become the subject matter of almost the whole of moral philosophy...

Peter Singer

 

If a tree falls in the forest, and no one hears it, does it make a sound? If by 'sound' you mean 'acoustic vibrations in the air', the answer is 'Yes.' But if by 'sound' you mean an auditory experience in the brain, the answer is 'No.'

We might call this straightforward solution pluralistic sound reductionism. If people use the word 'sound' to mean different things, and people have different intuitions about the meaning of the word 'sound', then we needn't endlessly debate which definition is 'correct'.1 We can be pluralists about the meanings of 'sound'. 

To facilitate communication, we can taboo and reduce: we can replace the symbol with the substance and talk about facts and anticipations, not definitions. We can avoid using the word 'sound' and instead talk about 'acoustic vibrations' or 'auditory brain experiences.'

Still, some definitions can be wrong:

Alex: If a tree falls in the forest, and no one hears it, does it make a sound?

Austere MetaAcousticist: Tell me what you mean by 'sound', and I will tell you the answer.

Alex: By 'sound' I mean 'acoustic messenger fairies flying through the ether'.

Austere MetaAcousticist: There's no such thing. Now, if you had asked me about this other definition of 'sound'...

There are other ways for words to be wrong, too. But once we admit to multiple potentially useful reductions of 'sound', it is not hard to see how we could admit to multiple useful reductions of moral terms.

 

Many Moral Reductionisms

Moral terms are used in a greater variety of ways than sound terms are. There is little hope of arriving at the One True Theory of Morality by analyzing common usage or by triangulating from the platitudes of folk moral discourse. But we can use stipulation, and we can taboo and reduce. We can use pluralistic moral reductionism2 (for austere metaethics, not for empathic metaethics).

Example #1:

Neuroscientist Sam Harris: Which is better? Religious totalitarianism or the Northern European welfare state?

Austere Metaethicist: What do you mean by 'better'?

Harris: By 'better' I mean 'that which tends to maximize the well-being of conscious creatures'.

Austere Metaethicist: Assuming we have similar reductions of 'well-being' and 'conscious creatures' in mind, the evidence I know of suggests that the Northern European welfare state is more likely to maximize the well-being of conscious creatures than religious totalitarianism.

Example #2:

Philosopher Peter Railton: Is capitalism the best economic system?

Austere Metaethicist: What do you mean by 'best'?

Railton: By 'best' I mean 'would be approved of by an ideally instrumentally rational and fully informed agent considering the question ‘How best to maximize the amount of non-moral goodness?' from a social point of view in which the interests of all potentially affected individuals are counted equally.

Austere Metaethicist: Assuming we agree on the meaning of 'ideally instrumentally rational' and 'fully informed' and 'agent' and 'non-moral goodness' and a few other things, the evidence I know of suggests that capitalism would not be approved of by an ideally instrumentally rational and fully informed agent considering the question ‘How best to maximize the amount of non-moral goodness?' from a social point of view in which the interests of all potentially affected individuals were counted equally.

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