Followup to: The Useful Concept of Truth

We previously asked:

What rule would restrict our beliefs to just statements that can be meaningful, without excluding a priori anything that could in principle be true?

It doesn't work to require that the belief's truth or falsity make a sensory difference. It's true, but not testable, to say that a spaceship going over the cosmological horizon of an expanding universe does not suddenly blink out of existence. It's meaningful and false, rather than meaningless, to say that on March 22nd, 2003, the particles in the center of the Sun spontaneously arranged themselves into a short-lived chocolate cake. This statement's truth or falsity has no consequences we'll ever be able to test experientally.  Nonetheless, it legitimately describes a way reality could be, but isn't; the atoms in our universe could've been arranged like that on March 22nd 2003, but they weren't.

You can't say that there has to be some way to arrange the atoms in the universe so as to make the claim true or alternatively false. Then the theory of quantum mechanics is a priori meaningless, because there's no way to arrange atoms to make it true. And if you try to substitute quantum fields instead, well, what if they discover something else tomorrow? And is it meaningless -rather than meaningful and false - to imagine that physicists are lying about quantum mechanics in a grand organized conspiracy?

Since claims are rendered true or false by how-the-universe-is, the question "What claims can be meaningful?" implies the question "What sort of reality can exist for our statements to correspond to?"

If you rephrase it this way, the question probably sounds completely fruitless and pointless, the sort of thing that a philosopher would ponder for years before producing a long, incomprehensible book that would be studied by future generations of unhappy students while being of no conceivable interest to anyone with a real job.

But while deep philosophical dilemmas such as these are never settled by philosophers, they are sometimes settled by people working on a related practical problem which happens to intersect the dilemma. There are a lot of people who think I'm being too harsh on philosophers when I express skepticism about mainstream philosophy; but in this case, at least, history clearly bears out the point. Philosophers have been discussing the nature of reality for literal millennia... and yet the people who first delineated and formalized a critical hint about the nature of reality, the people who first discovered what sort of things seem to be real,were trying to solve a completely different-sounding question.

They were trying to figure out whether you can tell the direction of cause and effect from survey data.

Please now read Causal Diagrams and Causal Models, which was modularized out so that it could act as a standalone introduction. This post involves some simple math, but causality is so basic to key future posts that it's pretty important to get at least some grasp on the math involved. Once you are finished reading, continue with the rest of this post.

Related to: Map and Territory.

This post is based on ideas that came to be during my second-year nursing Research Methods class. The fact that I did terribly in this class maybe indicates that I shouldn’t be trying to explain it to anyone, but it also has a lot to do with the way I zoned out for most of every class, mulling over the material that would later become this post.

Types of map: the level of abstraction, or ‘how many steps away from reality’?

Probably in the third or fourth Research Methods class, we learned that any given research proposal could be divided into one of the following four categories:

• Descriptive
• Exploratory
• Explanatory
• Predictive

Note: This is a description pieced together many, many years after my younger self subconsciously created it. This is part of my explanation of how I ended up me. I highly doubt all of this was as neatly defined as I present it to you here. Just know: The me in this post is me between the age of self-awareness and 17 years old. I am currently 25.

An action based belief system asks what to do when given a specific scenario. The input is Perceived Reality and the output is an Action. Most of my old belief system was built with such beliefs. A quick example: If the stop light is red, stop before the intersection.

These beliefs form a network of really complicated chains of conditionals:

• If the stop light is red
• And you are not stopped
• Stop in the next available space before the intersection

Illusions are cool. They make me think something is happening when it isn't. When offered the classic illusion pictured to the right, I wonder at the color of A and B. How weird, bizarre, and incredible.

Today I looked at the above illusion and thought, "Why do I keep thinking A and B are different colors? Obviously, something is wrong with how I am thinking about colors." I am being stupid when my I look at this illusion and I interpret the data in such a way to determine distinct colors. My expectations of reality and the information being transmitted and received are not lining up. If they were, the illusion wouldn't be an illusion.

The number 2 is prime; the number 6 is not. What about the number 1? Prime is defined as a natural number with exactly two divisors. 1 is an illusionary prime if you use a poor definition such as, "Prime is a number that is only divisible by itself and 1." Building on these bad assumptions could result in all sorts of weird results much like dividing by 0 can make it look like 2 = 1. What a tricky illusion!

An optical illusion is only bizarre if you are making a bad assumption about how your visual system is supposed to be working. It is a flaw in the Map, not the Territory. I should stop thinking that the visual system is reporting RGB style colors. It isn't. And, now that I know this, I am suddenly curious about what it is reporting. I have dropped a bad belief and am looking for a replacement. In this case, my visual system is distinguishing between something else entirely. Now that I have the right answer, this optical illusion should become as uninteresting as questioning whether 1 is prime. It should stop being weird, bizarre, and incredible. It merely highlights an obvious reality.

Addendum: This post was edited to fix a few problems and errors. If you are at all interested in more details behind the illusion presented here, there are a handful of excellent comments below.