LESSWRONG
LW

975
Rationality: A-Z

Overly Convenient Excuses

Aug 24, 2017 by Eliezer Yudkowsky

This sequence focuses on questions that are as probabilistically clear-cut as questions get. The Bayes-optimal answer is often infeasible to compute, but errors like confirmation bias can take root even in cases where the available evidence is overwhelming and we have plenty of time to think things over.

55Rationality: An Introduction
Rob Bensinger
11y
10
349Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
19y
84
200The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
19y
54
96Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct
Eliezer Yudkowsky
19y
35
172The Third Alternative
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
86
100Lotteries: A Waste of Hope
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
73
132New Improved Lottery
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
45
131But There's Still A Chance, Right?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
61
310The Fallacy of Gray
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
82
117Absolute Authority
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
78
161How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
410
93Infinite Certainty
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
130
1200 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
150
174Your Rationality is My Business
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
28