Forecasting & Prediction

Applied to Post AGI effect prediction by Juliezhanggg 2d ago

Applied to Whose track record of AI predictions would you like to see evaluated? by Jonny Spicer 5d ago

Applied to Should you go with your best guess?: Against precise Bayesianism and related views by Anthony DiGiovanni 6d ago

Applied to The Clueless Sniper and the Principle of Indifference by Jim Buhler 7d ago

Applied to Addressing doubts of AI progress: Why GPT-5 is not late, and why data scarcity isn't a fundamental limiter near term. by LDJ 17d ago

Applied to AI for Resolving Forecasting Questions: An Early Exploration by ozziegooen 17d ago

Applied to Replicators, Gods and Buddhist Cosmology by KristianRonn 18d ago

Applied to Experts' AI timelines are longer than you have been told? by Vasco Grilo 18d ago

Applied to The Difference Between Prediction Markets and Debate (Argument) Maps by Jamie Joyce 18d ago

Applied to Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday) by Jonas V 19d ago

Applied to How do you decide to phrase predictions you ask of others? (and how do you make your own?) by CstineSublime 24d ago

Applied to Predicting AI Releases Through Side Channels by Reworr R 1mo ago

Applied to Introducing Squiggle AI by ozziegooen 1mo ago

Applied to Grading my 2024 AI predictions by Nikola Jurkovic 1mo ago

Applied to No, the Polymarket price does not mean we can immediately conclude what the probability of a bird flu pandemic is. We also need to know the interest rate! by Christopher King 1mo ago

Applied to Forecast 2025 With Vox's Future Perfect Team — $2,500 Prize Pool by RobertM 1mo ago

Applied to The Technist Reformation: A Discussion with o1 About The Coming Economic Event Horizon by Raemon 2mo ago

Applied to Forecast With GiveWell by Raemon 2mo ago

Applied to Mathematical Futurology: From Pseudoscience to Rigorous Framework by Wenitte Apiou 2mo ago

Applied to "Map of AI Futures" - An interactive flowchart by swante 2mo ago