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Interview Series On Risks From AI

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From the old discussion page:

Talk:Interview series on risks from AI

Is there a more general compendium of issue/position/argument on this issue?

Something that all users could contribute to?

Seems very much has been said on this issue and who cares about a limited summary of the results of only one series of interviews / one survey.

Care has been taken with respect to the questions asked.

At two occasions I asked the LessWrong community to refine the questions:

  1. http://lesswrong.com/lw/65a/help_writing_marvin_minsky/
  2. http://lesswrong.com/lw/9as/template_questions_regarding_possible_risks_from/

I changed the questions on both occasions. Even though I did not agree with all of the suggestions, there is no indication that I did not take care with respect to what questions to ask.

The questions were both neutral and to the point. —Preceding unsigned comment added by XiXiDu (talk • contribs)

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Created by XiXiDu at

In 2011, Alexander Kruel (XiXiDu) started an unreflective, poorly thought-outa Q&A-A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated risks.with it.

In 2011, Alexander Kruel (XiXiDu) started aan unreflective, poorly thought-out Q&A A-style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.risks.

Subject: Questions regarding possible risks from artificial intelligence

See also

  • Assuming beneficial political and economic development and that no global catastrophe halts progress, by what year would you assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of artificial intelligence that is roughly as good as humans (or better, perhaps unevenly) at science, mathematics, engineering and programming?
  • Once we build AI that is roughly as good as humans (or better, perhaps unevenly) at science, mathematics, engineering and programming, how much more difficult will it be for humans and/or AIs to build an AI which is substantially better at those activities than humans?
  • Do you ever expect artificial intelligence to overwhelmingly outperform humans at typical academic research, in the way that they may soon overwhelmingly outperform humans at trivia contests, or do you expect that humans will always play an important role in scientific progress?
  • What probability do you assign to the possibility of an AI with initially (professional)roughly professional human-level competence (or better, perhaps unevenly) at general reasoning (including science, mathematics, engineering and programming) to self-modify its way up to vastly superhuman capabilities within a matter of hours/days/< 5 years?
  • How important is it to research risks associated with artificial intelligence that is good enough at general reasoning (including science, mathematics, engineering and programming) to be capable of radical self-modification, before attempting to build one?
  • What probability do you assign to the possibility of human extinction within 100 years as a result of AI capable of self-modification (that is not provably non-dangerous, if that is even possible)? P(human extinction by AI | AI capable of self-modification and not provably non-dangerous is created)

In 2011, Alexander Kruel (XiXiDu) started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.

Here is a list of people that I had a chance to interview so far: ...NAMES

In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.

Interviews

A list of all interviews:

Questions

The current set of questions:

  • Assuming beneficial political and economic development and that no global catastrophe halts progress, by what year would you assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of artificial intelligence that is roughly as good as humans at science, mathematics, engineering and programming?
  • Once we build AI that is roughly as good as humans at science, mathematics, engineering and programming, how much more difficult will it be for humans and/or AIs to build an AI which is substantially better at those activities than humans?
  • Do you ever expect artificial intelligence to overwhelmingly outperform humans at typical academic research, in the way that they may soon overwhelmingly outperform humans at trivia contests, or do you expect that humans will always play an important role in scientific progress?
  • What probability do you assign to the possibility of an AI with initially (professional) human-level competence at general reasoning (including science, mathematics, engineering and programming) to self-modify its way up to vastly superhuman capabilities within a matter of hours/days/< 5 years?
  • How important is it to research risks associated with artificial intelligence that is good enough at general reasoning (including science, mathematics, engineering and programming) to be capable of radical self-modification, before attempting to build one?
  • What probability do you assign to the possibility of human extinction within 100 years as a result of AI capable of self-modification (that is not provably non-dangerous, if that is even possible)? P(human extinction by AI | AI capable of self-modification and not provably non-dangerous is created)

Mail Template

The exact wording of the email:

Dear Professor/Dr ...,

I am currently trying to learn more about the academic perception of artificial general intelligence and possible risks associated with it. Consequently I am curious about your opinion as a noted expert.

I would like to ask you a few questions and your permission to publish your possible answers in order to estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI. I am not a journalist and do not represent any publication, nor do I maintain a formal academic relationship. I am conducting an informal interview for a community blog: lesswrong.com

Please let me know if you have any questions or if you are interested in third-party material that does expand on various aspects of my questions.

Here is a list of people that I had a chance to interview so far: ...

QUESTIONS

Yours sincerely,

NAME

ADDRESS