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Creating a Less Wrong prediction market
I will bet 500 karma that a funny picture thread will appear on Less Wrong within one year. If anyone is interested in the bet, we can better define terms.
Right now the LW software doesn't support karma transfers. Until it does and we can develop a more robust prediction market, let's just record the karma transfers on the wiki page that already exists for this purpose.
I will also give 100 karma to anyone that donates $10 to the SIAI before the current fundraising campaign is over.
10,000 karma for the first person with a karma transfer source code patch?
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Easy Predictor Tests
A fun game you can play on LessWrong is to stop just as you are about to click "comment" and make a prediction for how much karma your comment will receive within the next week. This will provide some quick feedback about how well your karma predictors are working. This exercise will let you know if something is broken. A simpler version is to pick from these three distinct outcomes: Positive karma, 0 karma, negative karma.
What other predictors are this easy to test? Likely candidates match one or more of the following criteria:
- Something we do on a regular (probably daily) basis
- An action that has a clear starting point
- Produces quick, quantifiable feedback (e.g. karma, which is a basic number)
- An action that is extremely malleable so we can take our feedback, make quick adjustments, and run through the whole process again
- An ulterior goal other than merely testing our predictors so we don't get bored (e.g. commenting at LessWrong, which offers communication and learning as ulterior goals)
- Something with a "sticky" history so we can get a good glimpse of our progress over time
Voting etiquette
Not all that surprisingly, there's quite a lot of discussion on LW about questions like
- just what should get voted up or down?
- what conclusions can one reasonably draw from getting downvoted?
- should downvotes (or even upvotes) be accompanied by explanations?
- should the way karma and voting work be changed?
This generally happens in dribs and drabs, typically in response to more specific questions of the form
- Waaaa, how come my supremely insightful comment above is currently sitting at -69?
and therefore tends to clutter up discussions that are meant to be about something else. So maybe it's worth seeing if we can arrive at some sort of consensus about the general issues, at which point maybe we can write that up and refer newcomers to it.
(The outcome may be that we find that there's no consensus to be had. That would be useful information too.)
I'll kick things off with a few unfocused thoughts.
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