Decision theory: An outline of some upcoming posts
Last August or so, Eliezer asked Steve Rayhawk and myself to attempt to solve Newcomb’s problem together. This project served a couple of purposes:
a. Get an indication as to our FAI research abilities.
b. Train our reduction-muscles.
c. Check whether Eliezer’s (unseen by us) timeless decision theory is a point that outside folks tend to arrive at independently (at least if starting from the rather substantial clues on OB/LW), and whether anything interestingly new came out of an independent attempt.
Steve and I (and, briefly but helpfully, Liron Shapira) took our swing at Newcomb. We wrote a great mass of notes that have been sitting on our hard drives, but hadn’t stitched them together into a single document. I’d like to attempt a Less Wrong sequence on that subject now. Most of this content is stuff that Eliezer, Nesov, and/or Dai developed independently and have been referring to in their posts, but I’ll try to present it more fully and clearly. I learned a bit of this from Eliezer/Nesov/Dai’s recent posts.
Here’s the outline, to be followed up with slower, clearer blog posts if all goes well:
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