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Development of Compression Rate Method
Summary: This post provides a brief discussion of the traditional scientific method, and mentions some areas where the method cannot be directly applied. Then, through a series of thought experiments, a set of minor modifications to the traditional method are presented. The result is a refined version of the method, based on data compression.
Related to: Changing the Definition of Science, Einstein's Arrogance, The Dilemma: Science or Bayes?
ETA: For those who are familiar with notions such as Kolmogorov Complexity and MML, this piece may have a low ratio of novelty:words. The basic point is that one can compare scientific theories by instantiating them as compression programs, using them to compress a benchmark database of measurements related to a phenomenon of interest, and comparing the resulting codelengths (taking into account the length of the compressor itself).
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The scourge of perverse-mindedness
This website is devoted to the art of rationality, and as such, is a wonderful corrective to wrong facts and, more importantly, wrong procedures for finding out facts.
There is, however, another type of cognitive phenomenon that I’ve come to consider particularly troublesome, because it militates against rationality in the irrationalist, and fights against contentment and curiousity in the rationalist. For lack of a better word, I’ll call it perverse-mindedness.
The perverse-minded do not necessarily disagree with you about any fact questions. Rather, they feel the wrong emotions about fact questions, usually because they haven’t worked out all the corollaries.
Let’s make this less abstract. I think the following quote is preaching to the choir on a site like LW:
“The universe that we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but pitiless indifference.”
-Richard Dawkins, "God's Utility Function," Scientific American (November, 1995).
Am I posting that quote to disagree with it? No. Every jot and tittle of it is correct. But allow me to quote another point of view on this question.
“We are not born into this world, but grow out of it; for in the same way an apple tree apples, the Earth peoples.”
Overcoming the mind-killer
I've been asked to start a thread in order to continue a debate I started in the comments of an otherwise-unrelated post. I started to write a post on that topic, found myself introducing my work by way of explanation, and then realized that this was a sub-topic all its own which is of substantial relevance to at least one of the replies to my comments in that post -- and a much better topic for a first-ever post/thread .
So I'm going to write that introductory post first, and then start another thread specifically on the topic under debate.
Med Patient Social Networks Are Better Scientific Institutions
When you're suffering from a life-changing illness, where do you find information about its likely progression? How do you decide among treatment options?
You don't want to rely on studies in medical journals because their conclusion-drawing methodologies are haphazard. You'll be better off getting your prognosis and treatment decisions from a social networking site: PatientsLikeMe.com.
PatientsLikeMe.com lets patients with similar illnesses compare symptoms, treatments and outcomes. As Jamie Heywood at TEDMED 2009 explains, this represents an enormous leap forward in the scope and methodology of clinical trials. I highly recommend his excellent talk, and I will paraphrase part of it below.
Ethics has Evidence Too
A tenet of traditional rationality is that you can't learn much about the world from armchair theorizing. Theory must be epiphenomenal to observation-- our theories are functions that tell us what experiences we should anticipate, but we generate the theories from *past* experiences. And of course we update our theories on the basis of new experiences. Our theories respond to our evidence, usually not the other way around. We do it this way because it works better then trying to make predictions on the basis of concepts or abstract reasoning. Philosophy from Plato through Descartes and to Kant is replete with failed examples of theorizing about the natural world on the basis of something other than empirical observation. Socrates thinks he has deduced that souls are immortal, Descartes thinks he has deduced that he is an immaterial mind, that he is immortal, that God exists and that he can have secure knowledge of the external world, Kant thinks he has proven by pure reason the necessity of Newton's laws of motion.
These mistakes aren't just found in philosophy curricula. There is a long list of people who thought they could deduce Euclid's theorems as analytic or a priori knowledge. Epicycles were a response to new evidence but they weren't a response that truly privileged the evidence. Geocentric astronomers changed their theory *just enough* so that it would yield the right predictions instead of letting a new theory flow from the evidence. Same goes for pre-Einsteinian theories of light. Same goes for quantum mechanics. A kludge is a sign someone is privileging the hypothesis. It's the same way many of us think the Italian police changed their hypothesis explaining the murder of Meredith Kercher once it became clear Lumumba had an alibi and Rudy Guede's DNA and hand prints were found all over the crime scene. They just replaced Lumumba with Guede and left the rest of their theory unchanged even though there was no longer reason to include Knox and Sollecito in the explanation of the murder. These theories may make it over the bar of traditional rationality but they sail right under what Bayes theorem requires.
Most people here get this already and many probably understand it better than I do. But I think it needs to be brought up in the context of our ongoing discussion of normative ethics.
Unless we have reason to think about ethics differently, our normative theories should respond to evidence in the same way we expect our theories in other domains to respond to evidence. What are the experiences that we are trying to explain with our ethical theories? Why bother with ethics at all? What is the mystery we are trying to solve? The only answer I can think of is our ethical intuitions. When faced with certain situations in real life or in fiction we get strong impulses to react in certain ways, to praise some parties and condemn others. We feel guilt and sometimes pay amends. There are some actions which we have a visceral abhorrence of.
These reactions are for ethics what measurements of time and distance are for physics -- the evidence.
Science - Idealistic Versus Signaling
[This is a version of an first draft essay I wrote for my blog. I intend to write another version, but it is going to take some time to research, and I want to get this out where I can start getting some feedback and sources for further research.]
The responses to the recent leaking of the CRU's information and emails, has led me to a changed understanding of science and how it is viewed by various people, especially people who claim to be scientists. Among people who actually do or consume science there seem to be two broad views - what they "believe" about science, rather than what they normally "say" about science when asked.
The classical view, what I have begun thinking of as the idealistic view, is science as the search for reliable knowledge. This is the version most scientists (and many non-scientists) espouse when asked, but increasingly many scientists actually hold another view when their beliefs are evaluated by their actions.
This is the signaling and control view of science. This is the "social network" view that has been developed by many sociologists of science.
Scott Aaronson on Born Probabilities
This post attempts to popularize some of Scott Aaronson's lectures and research results relating to Born probabilities. I think they represent a significant step towards answering the question "Why Born's rule?" but do not seem to be very well known. Prof. Aaronson writes frequently on his popular blog, Shtetl-Optimized, but is apparently too modest to use it to do much promotion of his own ideas. I hope he doesn’t mind that I take up this task (and that he forgives any errors and misunderstandings I may have committed here).
Before I begin, I want to point out something that has been bugging me about the fictional Ebborian physics, which will eventually lead us to Aaronson's ideas. So, let’s first recall the following passage from Eliezer’s story:
Paper: Testing ecological models
You may be interested in a paper of medium age I just read. Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation (PDF) tackles a problem many of you are familiar with in a slightly different context.
To entice you to read it, here are some quotes from its descriptions of other papers:
Holling (1978) pronounced it a fable that the purpose of validation is to establish the truth of the model…
Overton (1977) viewed validation as an integral part of the modelling process…
Botkin (1993) expressed concern that the usage of the terms verification and validation was not consistent with their logical meanings…
Mankin et al. (1977) suggested that the objectives of model-building may be achieved without validating the model…
I have another reason for posting this; I’m looking for more papers on model validation, especially how-to papers. Which ones do you consider most helpful?
She Blinded Me With Science
Scrutinize claims of scientific fact in support of opinion journalism.
Even with honest intent, it's difficult to apply science correctly, and it's rare that dishonest uses are punished. Citing a scientific result gives an easy patina of authority, which is rarely scratched by a casual reader. Without actually lying, the arguer may select from dozens of studies only the few with the strongest effect in their favor, when the overall body of evidence may point at no effect or even in the opposite direction. The reader only sees "statistically significant evidence for X". In some fields, the majority of published studies claim unjustified significance in order to gain publication, inciting these abuses.
Here are two recent examples:
Women are often better communicators because their brains are more networked for language. The majority of women are better at "mind-reading," than most men; they can read the emotions written on people's faces more quickly and easily, a talent jump-started by the vast swaths of neural real estate dedicated to processing emotions in the female brain.
- Susan Pinker, a psychologist, in NYT's "DO Women Make Better Bosses"
Twin studies and adoptive studies show that the overwhelming determinant of your weight is not your willpower; it's your genes. The heritability of weight is between .75 and .85. The heritability of height is between .9 and .95. And the older you are, the more heritable weight is.
- Megan McArdle, linked from the LW article The Obesity Myth
Creating The Simple Math of Everything
Eliezer once proposed an Idea for a book, The Simple Math of Everything. The basic idea is to compile articles on the basic mathematics of a wide variety of fields, but nothing too complicated.
Not Jacobean matrices for frequency-dependent gene selection; just Haldane's calculation of time to fixation. Not quantum physics; just the wave equation for sound in air. Not the maximum entropy solution using Lagrange Multipliers; just Bayes's Rule.
Now, writing a book is a pretty daunting task. Luckily brian_jaress had the idea of creating an index of links to already available online articles. XFrequentist pointed out that something like this has been done before over at Evolving Thoughts. This initially discourage me, but it eventually helped me refine what I thought the index should be. A key characteristic of Eliezer's idea is that it should be worthwhile for someone who doesn't know the material to read the entire index. Many of the links at evolving thoughts point to rather narrow topics that might not be very interesting to a generalist. Also there is just plain a ton of stuff to read over there - at least 100 articles.
So we should come up with some basic criteria for the articles. Here is what I suggest (let me know what you think):
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