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It's not obvious that one is better off with the truth. Assume that for some desirable thing X:
P(X|I believe X will happen) = 49%
P(X|I believe X won't happen) = 1%
It seems I can't rationally believe that X will happen. Perhaps I would be better off being deluded about it.
When Pinker said "better off", I assumed he included goal achievement. It's plausible that people are more motivated to do something if they're more certain than they should be based on the evidence. They might not try as hard otherwise, which will influence the probability that the goal is attained. I don't really know if that's true, though.
The thing may be worth doing even if the probability isn't high that it will succeed, because the expected value could be high. But if one isn't delusionally certain that one will be successful, it may no longer be worth doing because the probability that the attempt succeeds is lower. (That was... (read more)