Comment author: Remlin 06 May 2014 05:47:06AM *  0 points [-]

Sorry, I don't understand - why does sum of probabilities not equal 100% in your example? Assume that you missed "5" in "P(X|I believe X won't happen) = 1%"

Perhaps I would be better off being deluded about it.

But for what reason?

Comment author: 123 07 May 2014 04:56:25AM 0 points [-]

But for what reason?

When Pinker said "better off", I assumed he included goal achievement. It's plausible that people are more motivated to do something if they're more certain than they should be based on the evidence. They might not try as hard otherwise, which will influence the probability that the goal is attained. I don't really know if that's true, though.

The thing may be worth doing even if the probability isn't high that it will succeed, because the expected value could be high. But if one isn't delusionally certain that one will be successful, it may no longer be worth doing because the probability that the attempt succeeds is lower. (That was the point of my first comment.)

There could be other psychological effects of knowing certain things. For example, maybe it would be difficult to handle being completely objective about one's own flaws and so on. Being objective about people you know may (conceivably) harm your relationships. Having to lie is uncomfortable. Knowing a completely useless but embarrassing fact about someone but pretending you don't is uncomfortable, not simply a harmless, unimportant update of your map of the territory. Etc.

I'm not saying I know of any general way to avoid harmful knowledge, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 01 May 2014 11:21:22PM 11 points [-]

People are surely better off with the truth. Oddly enough, everyone agrees with this when it comes to the arts. Sophisticated people sneer at feel-good comedies and saccharine romances in which everyone lives happily ever after. But when it comes to science, these same people say, "Give us schmaltz!" They expect the science of human beings to be a source of emotional uplift and inspirational sermonizing.

Steven Pinker

Comment author: 123 03 May 2014 12:14:50PM *  4 points [-]

It's not obvious that one is better off with the truth. Assume that for some desirable thing X:

P(X|I believe X will happen) = 49%

P(X|I believe X won't happen) = 1%

It seems I can't rationally believe that X will happen. Perhaps I would be better off being deluded about it.