Imagine that I write a computer program that starts by choosing a random integer W between 0 and 2. It then generates 10^(3W) random simple math problems, numbering each one and placing it in list P. It then chooses a random math problem from P and presents it to me, without telling me what the problem number is for that particular math problem.

In this case, being presented with a single math problem tells me nothing about the state of W - I expect it to do that in any case. Similarly, if I subsequently find out that I was shown P(50), that rules out W=0 and makes W=1 1,000 times more likely than W=2.

Given that W represents which world we're in, each math problem in P represents a unique person, and being presented with a math problem represents experiencing being that person or knowing that that person exists, the self indication assumption says that my model is flawed.

According to the self-indication assumption, my program needs to do an extra step to be a proper representation. After it generates a list of math problems, it needs to then choose a second random number, X, and present me with a math problem only if there's a math problem numbered X. In this case, being presented with a math problem or not does tell me something about W - I have a much higher chance of getting a math problem if W=2 and a much lower chance if W=0 - and finding out that the one math problem I was presented with was P(50) tells me much more about X than it does about W.

I don't see why this is a proper representation, or why my first model is flawed, though I suspect it relates to thinking about the issue in terms of specific people rather than any person in the relevant set, and I tend to get lost in the math of the usual discussions. Help?

About three hours ago - in the very early morning, pre-dawn - someone knocked on my window to get my attention and made a lewd proposition. Less than two weeks ago, someone - probably the same person; definitely someone with a similar voice and build - woke me up by whispering 'open the door' until I looked out the window. I am, needless to say, not amused.

Since the first incident, I've been leaving my porch light on, and I've had a webcam sitting prominently in the window. The webcam has been commented on by both of the people who know me and would have an opportunity to do so, so I expected that it would be a reasonable deterrent, but apparently this guy is very stupid, very desperate, or both.

I called the police both times, and they responded promptly, but didn't see anyone walking around near my apartment. This leads me to believe that I'm being harassed by a nearby neighbor.

The webcam was not on during the second incident, but it will be on nightly from now on. I also intend to add a light in the window near my bed - I didn't get a good look at the guy, even though he was right there and not making any apparent attempt to hide, because he was between me and the porch light.

I'd appreciate any other practical suggestions that anyone might have, bearing in mind that I'm in an apartment and can't make many changes to the building itself. Also, I was already working on buying a house before the first incident even happened, so suggestions that I move aren't useful - I'm already working on that, thank goodness.

(The chances of me having trouble with this individual in any situation other than a home invasion seem pretty small - I don't leave the house often, and not on a regular schedule at all, plus I don't drive so I generally have a friend in a car watching me to and from the door, so the usually more risky situation of getting in and out of the house isn't an issue for the most part. I will be extra-careful about getting my mail and thoughtful about when I leave to do my laundry.)

I just encountered Archive Binge, a website that makes custom RSS feeds of certain webcomics' archives, presenting a few comics per day so that people can easily catch up to those comics' current strips without overloading themselves.

I strongly suspect that a similar tool would be useful for the Sequences. It might be good to have a few extra features, like the ability to only see posts with a certain tag, but even just a basic feed that presented one or two of them a week would be useful.

It might be even more useful to, rather than allowing each person to make their own feed, have a single feed that cycles through everything and then restarts, to encourage new conversations about those articles between people who are reading the sequences at the same time. If the resulting cycle is too long, we could also have a second or third feed offset from the main one, so that no one has to wait more than a few months to subscribe to a feed that's starting at the beginning.

I'd been staying out of anti-akrasia discussion mostly because my strategy for getting things done is so different from the common one that it barely seems related, much less relevant. I've been asked, though, so here's what I have to say about it.

One of the main premises in how I go about getting things done is that the process of choosing what to do is  a major factor in how easy it is to get yourself to do that thing. Being confident that the goal is one that you want to achieve and that the next step really is the best thing to do to achieve it is important. Without that, you're likely going to have to run on willpower rather than coast on your own drive to reach that goal. (Fear is another common drive, and sometimes an unavoidable one, but I really don't recommend it. On top of the stress of working that way, running on fear means that you risk having a sudden impetus failure if you misjudge what your brain will consider a safe solution to the problem in the immediate sense. Example: My fear of doctors would be better handled by taking active steps to keep my health, not by avoiding dealing with medical issues altogether as I've been doing for the last few years. I'm working on turning that around, and am actually planning to post about it as an open question of instrumental rationality sometime in the next few days.)