Comment author:RobinHanson
20 December 2009 12:16:54PM
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19 points
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Most smug contrarians have many contrarian beliefs, not just one. If we average over all the various beliefs of smug contrarians, what level of accuracy will we find? (Could we find data on smug contrarians from a century ago?) I suspect accuracy will be far too low to justify such smugness. Even if we limit our attention to high IQ smug contrarians, I suspect accuracy will also be low. Yes the typical objection to smugness is probably to the cockiness of asserting higher status than one has been granted, but the typical reason people are smugly contrarian is also probably wanting to defy current status rankings. You can't assume that because they are hypocrites and disagree with you that you are not a hypocrite.
Comment author:Alexan
21 December 2009 04:28:07AM
0 points
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Most beliefs are wrong. We do not test medicine against nothing, but rather against a placebo. In this case we must ask ourselves whether or not holding contrarian beliefs gives a result better then comparative strategies.
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Most smug contrarians have many contrarian beliefs, not just one. If we average over all the various beliefs of smug contrarians, what level of accuracy will we find? (Could we find data on smug contrarians from a century ago?) I suspect accuracy will be far too low to justify such smugness. Even if we limit our attention to high IQ smug contrarians, I suspect accuracy will also be low. Yes the typical objection to smugness is probably to the cockiness of asserting higher status than one has been granted, but the typical reason people are smugly contrarian is also probably wanting to defy current status rankings. You can't assume that because they are hypocrites and disagree with you that you are not a hypocrite.
Most beliefs are wrong. We do not test medicine against nothing, but rather against a placebo. In this case we must ask ourselves whether or not holding contrarian beliefs gives a result better then comparative strategies.
The answer is yes. Let them be smug!