Comment author: komponisto 21 February 2010 08:22:31PM *  0 points [-]

Anna: for the context of this, see here.

You may want to remember that 0 and 1 are not probabilities. Also, I must say I don't understand your extremely high prior of 0.5 for Guede. (The evidence against him is such that the prior could be much, much lower and he would still have a very high probability of guilt.)

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 21 February 2010 08:36:49PM 0 points [-]

Thank you. Yes I've seen the post by Rolf Nelson.

I don't understand (though I admit for expediency's sake did not fully read the 0/1 link which I should do if I post here) how there cannot be an absolute for innocence. I didn't assign 1 to Rudy Guede for the reason you mention. But in terms of innocence, we know for example that Princess Diana didn't kill Meredith and that the mayor of Seattle at the time did not kill Meredith, so how can it not be zero? I wrote zero for a specific reason. I wanted it to indicate that gap between reasonability of arrest and no reasonability of arrest. To assign even a small possibility at this point seems inaccurate to me. Although, you make a good point, in actuality, so I would amend them to .001. Is that a proper probability quotient in terms of the question?

Comment author: komponisto 19 February 2010 02:17:02AM 5 points [-]

(Beginning thread for a debate with Rolf Nelson. Others also welcome to comment, of course.)

Okay, Rolf, so to get things started, I'd like to get your numbers out on the table. So, if you wouldn't mind, please tell me, first of all, your current posterior probability estimates for the guilt of:

  1. Amanda Knox
  2. Raffaele Sollecito
  3. Rudy Guede

(I expect we'll mainly focus on Knox and Sollecito, since that's obviously where our main disagreement is; I've included Guede for the sake of comparison.)

Next, I'd like to know your priors for Knox and Sollecito (and Guede as well, if you wish), by which I mean your estimate of the probability that each suspect would commit a crime of this sort, as of (let's say) a month before Kercher's death.

Then, if you could, please list, in descending order of evidentiary strength, the pieces of information most responsible for moving your estimates away from the above priors -- along with, if you wouldn't mind, a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of the strength of each piece of evidence, in terms of likelihood ratios, bits, or bels, whatever you prefer. (Again, I'm most interested in Knox and Sollecito; Guede is optional, at least for now.)

This should allow us to quickly pinpoint our disagreement(s).

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 21 February 2010 08:12:26PM *  0 points [-]

This should allow us to quickly pinpoint our disagreement(s).

The disagreement most likely stems from the reliability of the Micheli Report for accuracy and comprehensiveness.

Comment author: komponisto 19 February 2010 02:17:02AM 5 points [-]

(Beginning thread for a debate with Rolf Nelson. Others also welcome to comment, of course.)

Okay, Rolf, so to get things started, I'd like to get your numbers out on the table. So, if you wouldn't mind, please tell me, first of all, your current posterior probability estimates for the guilt of:

  1. Amanda Knox
  2. Raffaele Sollecito
  3. Rudy Guede

(I expect we'll mainly focus on Knox and Sollecito, since that's obviously where our main disagreement is; I've included Guede for the sake of comparison.)

Next, I'd like to know your priors for Knox and Sollecito (and Guede as well, if you wish), by which I mean your estimate of the probability that each suspect would commit a crime of this sort, as of (let's say) a month before Kercher's death.

Then, if you could, please list, in descending order of evidentiary strength, the pieces of information most responsible for moving your estimates away from the above priors -- along with, if you wouldn't mind, a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of the strength of each piece of evidence, in terms of likelihood ratios, bits, or bels, whatever you prefer. (Again, I'm most interested in Knox and Sollecito; Guede is optional, at least for now.)

This should allow us to quickly pinpoint our disagreement(s).

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 21 February 2010 08:08:33PM 0 points [-]

Posterior probability estimates:

  1. 0
  2. 0
  3. .9

Priors:

  1. .01
  2. .01
  3. .5

Is that the sort of thing you are asking? I don't know if I attributed correctly.

Comment author: shuttlt 09 February 2010 05:53:03PM 0 points [-]

How about this:

What are the odds that, given a murder in a shared accomodation, one of the occupants is involved if someone known to one of the occupants is known to be involved, more than one person is known to be involved, and that occupant is found to have a false alibi?

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 21 February 2010 07:30:41PM 1 point [-]

You are making an assumption, one exaggeration, and one statement of belief.

Assumption: More than one person is known to be involved. (Not established.)

Exaggeration: someone known to one of the occupants (He was known to the occupants in the cottage below and only only known of by one the occupants alleged to be involved.)

Belief: found to have a false alibi (There is no proof or acceptable evidence that that occupant has a false alibi.)

The means by which the prosecution set about to establish that more than person was involved is suspect. The means by which a false alibi was established is also suspect. You cannot accept those as viable fact. Something that has been shown in previous comments, if I am not mistaken.

Comment author: brazil84 16 December 2009 01:58:59AM 0 points [-]

"In terms of the rules of the post, it takes a leap to get to the idea of a staging. One has to infer it."

Sorry, but I have no idea what this means. Interpreting evidence is always a matter of inference.

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 16 December 2009 05:11:06PM 2 points [-]

"Interpreting evidence is always a matter of inference."

Without physical evidence of something, how do you, except by imagination, come up with an explanation? Logic of the situation, yes. But this forms a tautology in this case. She broke the window and staged a break-in (though there is no physical evidence that suggests this) because... why? Because... someone wants it to look like she did the crime. My point was that komponisto showed how you have to have a reason in the situation itself to suggest it. This theory of the staged break-in is being used as a reason to suspect Amanda. The reason to suspect Amanda of a staged break-in is that more evidence is needed to implicate her in the crime. To say that "if Amanda staged a break-in, it would implicate her" may be true, but it would also be true of anyone. It could equally be true of the other two roommates, for example. The only thing that made Amanda stand out in this regard is that she was there first and that someone read into her behavior as significant.

This is how it seems to me.

Comment author: JRMayne 16 December 2009 03:19:21AM 4 points [-]

The error here is even asking a question about Amanda's motivations when you >haven't established an evidentiary (and that means physical) trail leading from >Meredith's body to Amanda's brain.

Indeed, that's counterintuitive. I believe it to be counterintuitive because it is incorrect. Amanda Knox was a roommate of Meredith Knox's; the initial likelihood of her being responsible is raised by that fact alone. It is normal for police to question motives of people close to the decedent, and it is good practice.

Suppose Hubby ends up shot a few dozen times as he is bicycling home from work. Wife has an alibi - she was 30 miles away, on film, at the time. But wife, after 20 minutes of questioning, confesses to giving $3,000 in cash she had squirreled away to someone (a description, but no name and he's gone) to shoot Hubby, that she gave him Hubby's route, and she was mad at Hubby for his affairs, affairs investigators later confirm.

Is the confession noise? We have no physical evidence. That's somewhat dissimilar to your assertion, I understand. Let's take it back a step:

Let's keep Hubby shot dead, but Wife does not confess. However, she has a $45,000 withdrawal the day before. She says it was for "baking supplies," but she lost it somewhere and can't find the cash. She says that she dearly loved Hubby, but she has dates from match.com that she set up the week before. When the cops get there to tell her about Hubby 15 minutes after the shooting, all of Hubby's clothes and property are being placed in a Goodwill truck, and Hubby's car is on sale at E-bay and there's champagne on ice.

I don't think that's noise.

And I don't think Amanda Knox's behavior is valueless noise. The argument made that the lack of physical evidence is far more telling may be sound (depending on the actual evidence), but the behavior is evidence.

Potential Bias Alerts: I'm a prosecutor. I have had my cases dissected in the press (one case may end up on TV) and not always accurately. Circumstantial cases with a high degree of detail are often difficult for the press to get right, in my experience. Highly-charged sex cases are often difficult for the press to get right, in my view. I have no experience with Italian authorities, and probably impute similarities to American justice that do not exist. I do give some value to the jury's verdict, because I do not believe that the time I've spent looking at the evidence is anywhere near sufficient.

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 16 December 2009 05:00:26PM *  1 point [-]

micio quoted:

"while Knox's defenders have no trouble complaining that jurors judged her unfairly based on her behavior in the days after the murder (purchasing sexy lingerie, frolicking around town and making out with her boyfriend), they don't mind pointing out her gentle appearance - or arguing that she has a reputation for being "sweet and generous and kind" etc. In other words - they're fine with exploiting Knox's image only to the extent it lines up with the idea that she's "not the type" who could kill another human being in connection with an act of sexual violence"

After a while people will be accountable for the evidence they choose to acknowledge or not. Things like this are inconsequential and incidental. Stick to the evidence. Talk about that. You will be voting for civilization and the rule of law or rule by thugs.

What I am finding is that a few people who are commenting here are consistently making the mistake that komponisto described. They are not leaving their perceptual fallacies.

For instance this statement:

"Amanda Knox was a roommate of Meredith Knox's; the initial likelihood of her being responsible is raised by that fact alone. It is normal for police to question motives of people close to the decedent, and it is good practice."

First of all, if the roommate question is enough to bring her in for questioning, then it should be on the same level as the inquiry toward the other two roommates, and this also puts Raffaele further out on the proximity scale. But these checks should be quick and cleared by the lack of physical evidence.

And this statement:

"Wife...confesses to giving $3,000 in cash she had squirreled away to someone (a description, but no name and he's gone) to shoot Hubby... Is the confession noise? We have no physical evidence. That's somewhat dissimilar to your assertion, I understand. Let's take it back a step..."

This has been checked as well. Given the lack of physical evidence, then evidence of conspiracy or collusion gets checked. There was no evidence of this either.

And the following statement:

"...but the behavior is evidence."

Not when there is no evidence of conspiracy, collusion, or physical evidence because then you are going back to the mistakes described by komponisto in the post.

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 16 December 2009 01:26:37AM *  2 points [-]

A fascinating look at Roman law versus Germanic:
"Italian Law and You - Welcome to the Jungle!" by Amanda Sorensen
http://www.bestofsicily.com/mag/art315.htm

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 16 December 2009 01:25:33AM 1 point [-]

I find the evidence of the conspicuousness of the prosecution's investigation and case for Amanda and Raffaele's guilt much more suspicious and compelling than the evidence left by Amanda and Raffaele. What would the probability/certainty numbers be on that?

Comment author: pete22 16 December 2009 12:20:54AM 2 points [-]

One thing to remember is that Mignini fired the coroner doing autopsy investigation when that person said it was the injuries of a single perpetrator. He then hired someone who said it was more than one perpetrator. If you would like, I can find a link to back it up. So the original report said one person caused the injuries.

Again, can you give us your source for this? I'm not doubting you, I just want to get an idea of where it comes from.

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 16 December 2009 01:19:38AM 1 point [-]

The lack of DNA evidence of a additional perpetrators corroborates the single suspect coroner's result.

Comment author: pete22 16 December 2009 12:20:54AM 2 points [-]

One thing to remember is that Mignini fired the coroner doing autopsy investigation when that person said it was the injuries of a single perpetrator. He then hired someone who said it was more than one perpetrator. If you would like, I can find a link to back it up. So the original report said one person caused the injuries.

Again, can you give us your source for this? I'm not doubting you, I just want to get an idea of where it comes from.

Comment author: AnnaGilmour 16 December 2009 01:03:36AM 2 points [-]

The following is from a recap of the defense's arguments on closing day. The recap was written by Kelly Brodbeck who was summarizing Ghirga's arguments. I think he got the rundown from a person present at the trial. This is the first thing I can cite. Will continue to look for more.

"He talked about how Mignini stated that the position and condition of Meredith showed that there was more than one person involved in the murder, but when the coroner Dr. Lali said that the body did not show that more than one person was involved, Mignini fired him and replaced him with someone who agreed with his assertions. He said “I wonder why he was really fired??” "

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