Review about the Rationality Meetup in Vienna on 27.09.2014

Superintelligence Summary by Marko Thiel

People who were there: Andreas, Matthias Brandner, Manuel K., Monika, Marko, Viliam Bur, Alex, Philip, Anna, Philipp, Tino/Sandy, Austin, Milica, Luka, Ivan, Axel, Lea, Lio, Andreas V., Manuel M. (20 people - awesome! And so many were new!)

Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom (presented by Marko Thiel)

First announcement: ethics will not be discussed and rather be ignored today, because otherwise he would never finish

Quote "Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control."

definition:

(I sadly didn't take notes here)

paths:

• AI -> strong AI

• whole brain emulation

• biological cognition (improve humans, chemical substances/nootropics, embryo selection -> lots of generations in vitro)

• interface with machine

• networks and organizations

forms:

• speed Superintellicence (like human but faster)

• collective Superintelligence (together smarter)

• quality Superintelligence (totally different to human)

intelligence explosion:

• there will be a crossover after which the machine itself will go on improving the system

• graph to show how similar an idiot and Einstein are compared to a mouse or Superintelligence

rate of intelligence change

AI takeover:

1. precritial

2. intelligence amplification

3. cover + preparation

4. overt implementation

-> arises the question of where the motivation to do so comes from!

the super intelligence will:

• the orthogonality thesis: any intelligence can build a pair with any motivation (Eliezer would probably call it "anti prediction)

Castes:

• oracles

• genies

• sovereign

• tool

predictability:

• design

• convergent instrumental goals (for example: self-preservation, goal-content integrity, cognitive enhancement, technology, resource acquisition -> infrastructure profusion)

other topics: failure modes, control problem, acquire values, choosing who to choose, do what I mean, the strategic picture

Comments I wrote down

by Andreas: "Does SI include self-awareness?" answer: "No"

by Ivan: Has someone tried to breed an human intelligent dog?

by Lio: Is it possible to have something that's good in all the things? -> Viliam: Yes, with a network structure

by Austin: Is there a difference between biological or programmed happiness? -> Manuel: the utility function of a thermostat is to be at 20 degrees, it doesn't WANT to be there

in the evening:

• We talked about daily things members of the group do which they consider rational/daily effective rituals/personal sleeping duration

for the next meetup:

• We will vote on the date in the Facebook group

• we will have three topics and the third one will be to collect personal goals we want to achieve with/in the group/ideas we have for the group

Prejudice is prejudgment, or forming an opinion before becoming aware of the relevant facts of a case.

How exactly does this differ from a Bayesian prior?

The Pygmalion effect, or Rosenthal effect, is the phenomenon whereby the greater the expectation placed upon people, the better they perform.[1] (Or the observer thinks it would be so!) A corollary of the Pygmalion effect is the golem effect, in which low expectations lead to a decrease in performance. (wikipedia)

Um, there is a lot of debate about whether this effect exists.

I wish the audio was available for free

Or even Britain. It's irritating that those rationalists in America consistently refuse to fly over to Britain just to include me in everything.

Since I will not be able to attend "the rational ritual retreat" I will just post my thoughts on this topic here :) I already talked about this with some of the people from LessWrong Vienna, but I will write it down for the whole community, too:

What do you think about "rational alternatives" to important conventional events (but of course not exactly on the official dates - because people probably meet their families then) or creating "rational annual events"? I personally don't experience big meaning in official celebrations, but I actually enjoy celebrations, even more with smart people who in general share my interests :) Also all the official celebrations probably had an important purpose in the wheel of the year - for me they all lost their purpose over time (because not believing in it or not taking part in it) so at least the rational alternatives should deliver it.

Some vague ideas I had:

• rational alternative to christmas: We could have a talk or invite someone to speak about effective altruism (I personally associate christmas with "giving") and then reflect about which projects we would love to support monetarily and collect money or something like that (maybe someone of you has better ideas?)

• rational alternative to New Year's Eve/Day (doesn't have to be exactly on this day) : coming together, celebrating the old/new year with good food (maybe cooking together or something like that) or whatever you like - but instead of just mention some new year's resolutions making it a huge part of the evening/day -> exercises for reflection about the last year and wishes/plans for the next (+ use Alex Vermeer's guide), defining new goals, sharing background knowledge about goal setting and motivation, publicly announcing goals for social control/pressure (I would offer to have some talks about the topics)

• rational alternative to the fasting period: I think fasting is not a stupid idea - there is also research that shows that reducing the daily intake correlates with a longer life in general (yeah, I know, correlation...) and I experienced that eating far less can really help to "free your mind". However: Also to just reflect about our diet, have some healthy cooking events together, trying soylent collectively or something like that would be an option. Or to do a lot of sport!

• rational alternative to Easter: since it's officially about "Jesus who overcame death" we could make a event about longevity and immortality and share scientific research on the topics

• summer/winter solstice: someone who is into this topics could teach the rest more about astronomy/astro physics

Of course I'm aware that there is no need to have any connection/correlation to official christian celebrations (and that some even might think it's contraindicated) - we can of course invent our own things independently (designed for a special purpose)

Well, someone needs to fly there and copy all their know-how. Are we rational enough to coordinate at this?

I would love to attend at "The Rational Ritual Retreat" but I expect it will not be near Austria or Bavaria :(

The general problem of fasting and extremely reduced intakes is that the metabolism slows down. Also you first lose a lot of muscles, then a bit of fat - when going on eating normal you burn less than before (because of less muscles) and therefore gain more fat. So for your body's composition I would say: Don't do it. (There is this great German book called "Die Physik des Abnehmens" = "the physics of weight loss" in which a physicist explains all this things very nicely)

However: I personally tried fasting for the mental effect, I was able to concentrate even better than normal, I liked the feeling of being "independent" from food and of being able to get through all of this things. (But I will not do it again because I try to get less body fat :) )

Review about the Rationality Meetup in Vienna on 23.08.2014

People who were there: Marko Thiel, Monika, Andreas, Matthias Brandner, Viliam Búr, Ivan, Manuel Moertelmaier, Pascal, Anna Leptikon, Marianna, Adelheid Gfrast, Jana and Austin Franzoni

We did the "open microphone" idea again and had our first meetup at Andreas' and Moni's place - thank you again for organizing it and all the food and drinks :)

Our (official) topics on Saturday were:

• "money creation" by Andreas

• "time" by Lea

• "remembering and experiencing self" (Kahnemann) by Andreas

• "money and happiness" by Matthias

We still have this open mic topics open:

absolute morality, antitheism, Esperanto, motivation hacker

We defined this topics for a full meetup in the future:

• "Superintelligence" (Marko Thiel)

• maybe Motivation Hacker? (Moni & me)

• introduction and current research about happiness (me)

I collected this feedback ideas (from me and other people) during and after the meetup:

• defining "homework" for the next meetup to have a better base for upcoming topics (like reading specific articles)

• trying more settings in one meetup so it "feels like doing more" (for example going for a walk, changing sitting positions et cetera - we had the idea because of "remembering vs experiencing self")

• before starting a specific discussion about a topic first thinking about which level of thinking is the best/most important one

• after each topic or 30 "open mic" minutes -> thinking what this new information means for myself/how I can use it