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Comment author: JonahSinick 10 December 2016 08:05:54PM 1 point [-]

Physics is established, so one can defer to existing authorities and get right answers about physics. Starting a well-run laundromat is also established, so ditto. Physics and laundromat-running both have well-established feedback loops that have validated their basic processes in ways third parties can see are valid.

Depending on which parts of physics one has in mind, this seems possibly almost exactly backwards (!!). Quoting from Vladimir_M's post Some Heuristics for Evaluating the Soundness of the Academic Mainstream in Unfamiliar Fields:

If a research area has reached a dead end and further progress is impossible except perhaps if some extraordinary path-breaking genius shows the way, or in an area that has never even had a viable and sound approach to begin with, it’s unrealistic to expect that members of the academic establishment will openly admit this situation and decide it’s time for a career change. What will likely happen instead is that they’ll continue producing output that will have all the superficial trappings of science and sound scholarship, but will in fact be increasingly pointless and detached from reality.

Arguably, some areas of theoretical physics have reached this state, if we are to trust the critics like Lee Smolin. I am not a physicist, and I cannot judge directly if Smolin and the other similar critics are right, but some powerful evidence for this came several years ago in the form of the Bogdanoff affair, which demonstrated that highly credentialed physicists in some areas can find it difficult, perhaps even impossible, to distinguish sound work from a well-contrived nonsensical imitation.

The reference to Smolin is presumably to The Trouble With Physics: The Rise of String Theory, the Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next . Penrose's recent book Fashion, Faith, and Fantasy in the New Physics of the Universe also seems relevant.

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 09:36:19PM 0 points [-]

This is fair; I had in mind basic high school / Newtonian physics of everyday objects. (E.g., "If I drop this penny off this building, how long will it take to hit the ground?", or, more messily, "If I drive twice as fast, what impact would that have on the kinetic energy with which I would crash into a tree / what impact would that have on how badly deformed my car and I would be if I crash into a tree?").

Comment author: Benito 10 December 2016 12:35:58PM 6 points [-]

Can you clarify on what sort of people you're trying to create, and the sort of people who should be pointed to attend your workshops? For example, I know people who will work on important parts of the problem (policy people, networking people, management people) but who will never do FHI or MIRI research, and I don't know whether these are people I should point your way.

(Given my experience of your content, my guess is these people would get a lot of value from your workshops, but perhaps you're planning to radically change the workshops to make them math/philosophy focused)

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 06:48:21PM 5 points [-]

We would indeed love to help those people train.

Comment author: gjm 10 December 2016 04:18:01PM 14 points [-]

I don't know how it plays out in the CFAR context specifically, but the sort of situation being described is this:

Alice is a social democrat and believes in redistributive taxation, a strong social safety net, and heavy government regulation. Bob is a libertarian and believes taxes should be as low as possible and "flat", safety-nets should be provided by the community, and regulation should be light or entirely absent. Bob asks Alice[1] what she knows about some topic related to government policy. Should Alice (1) provide Bob with all the evidence she can favouring the position she holds to be correct, or (2) provide Bob with absolutely all the relevant information she knows of, or (3) provide Bob with all the information she has that someone with Bob's existing preconceptions will find credible?

It's tempting to do #1. Anna is saying that CFAR will do (the equivalent of) #2 or even #3.

[1] I flipped a coin to decide who would ask whom.

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 06:44:57PM *  9 points [-]

Yes. Or will seriously attempt this, at least. It seems required for cooperation and good epistemic hygiene.

Comment author: jsteinhardt 10 December 2016 10:10:48AM 8 points [-]

Thanks for posting this, I think it's good to make these things explicit even if it requires effort. One piece of feedback: I think someone who reads this who doesn't already know what "existential risk" and "AI safety" are will be confused (they suddenly show up in the second bullet point without being defined, though it's possible I'm missing some context here).

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 06:41:35PM 1 point [-]

Thanks; good point; will add links.

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 06:40:10PM 1 point [-]

In case there are folks following Discussion but not Main: this mission statement was released along with:

Comment author: owencb 10 December 2016 03:49:55PM *  4 points [-]

Thanks for engaging. Further thoughts:

I agree with you that framing is important; I just deleted the old ETA.

For what it's worth I think even without saying that your aim is explicitly AI safety, a lot of people reading this post will take that away unless you do more to cancel the implicature. Even the title does this! It's a slightly odd grammatical construction which looks an awful lot like CFAR’s new focus: AI Safety; I think without being more up-front about alternative interpretation it will sometimes be read that way.

I'm curious where our two new docs leave you

Me too! (I assume that these have not been posted yet, but if I'm just failing to find them please let me know.)

I think they make clearer that we will still be doing some rationality qua rationality.

Great. Just to highlight that I think there are two important aspects of doing rationality qua rationality:

  • Have the people pursuing the activity have this as their goal. (I'm less worried about you failing on this one.)
  • Have external perceptions be that this is what you're doing. I have some concern that rationality-qua-rationality activities pursued by an AI safety org will be perceived as having an underlying agenda relating to that. And that this could e.g. make some people less inclined to engage, even relative to if they're run by a rationality org which has a significant project on AI safety.

my guess is that there isn't enough money and staff firepower to run a good standalone rationality organization in CFAR's stead

I feel pretty uncertain about this, but my guess goes the other way. Also, I think if there are two separate orgs, the standalone rationality one should probably retain the CFAR brand! (as it seems more valuable there)

I do worry about transition costs and losing synergies of working together from splitting off a new org. Though these might be cheaper earlier than later, and even if it's borderline right now whether there's enough money and staff to do both I think it won't be borderline within a small number of years.

Julia will be launching a small spinoff organization called Convergence

This sounds interesting! That's a specialised enough remit that it (mostly) doesn't negate my above concerns, but I'm happy to hear about it anyway.

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 06:32:31PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 08:31:08AM *  0 points [-]

Apologies; the link is broken and I'm not sure how to edit or delete it; real link is: http://rationality.org/about/mission

Comment author: owencb 08 December 2016 02:45:30PM *  11 points [-]

I had mixed feelings towards this post, and I've been trying to process them.

On the positive side:

  • I think AI safety is important, and that collective epistemology is important for this, so I'm happy to know that there will be some attention going to this.
  • There may be synergies to doing some of this alongside more traditional rationality work in the same org.

On the negative side:

  • I think there is an important role for pursuing rationality qua rationality, and that this will be harder to do consistently under an umbrella with AI safety as an explicit aim. For example one concern is that there will be even stronger pressure to accept community consensus that AI safety is important rather than getting people to think this through for themselves. Since I agree with you that the epistemology matters, this is concerning to me.
  • With a growing community, my first inclination would be that one could support both organisations, and that it would be better to have something new focus on epistemology-for-AI, while CFAR in a more traditional form continues to focus more directly on rationality (just as Open Phil split off from GiveWell rather than replacing the direction of GiveWell). I imagine you thought about this; hopefully you'll address it in one of the subsequent posts.
  • There is potential reputational damage by having these things too far linked. (Though also potential reputational benefits. I put this in "mild negative" for now.)

On the confused side:

  • I thought the post did an interesting job of saying more reasonable things than the implicature. In particular I thought it was extremely interesting that it didn't say that AI safety was a new focus. Then in the ETA you said "Even though our aim is explicitly AI Safety..."

I think framing matters a lot here. I'd feel much happier about a CFAR whose aim was developing and promoting individual and group rationality in general and particularly for important questions, one of whose projects was focusing on AI safety, than I do about a CFAR whose explicit focus is AI safety, even if the basket of activities they might pursue in the short term would look very similar. I wonder if you considered this?

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 10 December 2016 08:02:59AM 3 points [-]

Thanks for the thoughts; I appreciate it.

I agree with you that framing is important; I just deleted the old ETA. (For anyone interested, it used to read:

ETA: Having talked just now to people at our open house, I would like to clarify: Even though our aim is explicitly AI Safety...
CFAR does still need an art of rationality, and a community of rationality geeks that support that. We will still be investing at least some in that community. We will also still be running some "explore" workshops of different sorts aiming at patching gaps in the art (funding permitting), not all of which will be deliberately and explicitly backchained form AI Safety (although some will). Play is generative of a full rationality art. (In addition to sometimes targeting things more narrowly at particular high-impact groups, and otherwise more directly backchaining.) (More in subsequent posts.)

I'm curious where our two new docs leave you; I think they make clearer that we will still be doing some rationality qua rationality.

Will comment later re: separate organizations; I agree this is an interesting idea; my guess is that there isn't enough money and staff firepower to run a good standalone rationality organization in CFAR's stead, and also that CFAR retains quite an interest in a standalone rationality community and should therefore support it... but I'm definitely interested in thoughts on this.

Julia will be launching a small spinoff organization called Convergence, facilitating double crux conversations between EAs and EA-adjacent people in, e.g., tech and academia. It'll be under the auspices of CFAR for now but will not have opinions on AI. I'm not sure if that hits any of what you're after.

Comment author: calebwithers 08 December 2016 08:37:52AM 2 points [-]

I intend to donate to MIRI this year; do you anticipate that upcoming posts or other reasoning/resources might or should persuade people like myself to donate to CFAR instead?

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 08 December 2016 09:23:00AM 1 point [-]

I think we'll have it all posted by Dec 18 or so, if you want to wait and see. My personal impression is that MIRI and CFAR are both very good buys this year and that best would be for each to receive some donation (collectively, not from each person); I expect the care for MIRI to be somewhat more straight-forward, though.

I'd be happy to Skype/email with you or anyone re: the likely effects of donating to CFAR, especially after we get our posts up.

Comment author: ChristianKl 03 December 2016 11:17:10PM 0 points [-]

Do you believe that the Briers score is definitely the best way to model predictive accuracy or do you just point to it because it's a good way to model predictive accuracy?

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 04 December 2016 08:33:22PM 1 point [-]

No, it was just a pun. I believe trying to improve predictive accuracy is better than trying to promote view X (for basically any value of "X"); which I was hoping the pun of "Brier Boosting" off "Signal Boosting" would point to; but not Briers Score as such.

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