In response to Wrong Tomorrow
Aron02 April 2009 05:11:08PM0 points [-]

Long Bets is an older, rather sparse variation that publicizes bets made between public figures: http://www.longbets.org/

In response to An African Folktale
Aron16 February 2009 09:39:05AM1 point [-]

I would estimate the intended reaction to be: "Well I don't act like these despicable characters!" and then "Oh wait - maybe I have..". To me it seems like a tale of the bad we can do, when we aren't thinking about it. Or to put another way, the difficulty of making our behavior consistent with our morality. I see little evidence that the underlying morality is any different from the west.

Aron13 February 2009 10:05:25PM0 points [-]

to spare anyone the effort: I presume it's because they begin having children, and only future children are relevant.

Aron13 February 2009 09:39:08PM0 points [-]

Why does the curve descend pre-adolescence? Doesn't an average 18 year old have higher long-term reproductive potential than an 8 year old?

Aron01 February 2009 07:55:25PM0 points [-]

Alright, so we are headed for some variety of golden rule\ mutual defense treaty imposed to respect each others' values simply because there is reason to believe, if not provable, that there exists some OTHER force in the universe more powerful than the ones currently signing the treaty. This of course does not void 'friendly' attempts to modify unwanted behaviors, which added together with a 'will to power', would likely have civilizations drifting towards a common position ultimately.

Aron31 January 2009 03:12:03AM1 point [-]

Great bouncing Bayesian Babyeater babies Batman!

In response to OB Status Update
Aron28 January 2009 07:59:54PM1 point [-]

Sounds like a reasonable experiment. Nothing lasts forever. If Robin does indeed shut down, we've already lost the old OB. I suspect Eli wants a child that will actually grow up and leave the home. I predict the first sign of decay will be the upvoting of humor.

In response to Rationality Quotes 25
Aron28 January 2009 07:40:41PM0 points [-]

..just saw the stat correction..

In response to Rationality Quotes 25
Aron28 January 2009 07:33:17PM0 points [-]

Terrence McKenna was fond of saying essentially the same thing as Vaksel.

"1% occurrence, and 95% accuracy, a diagnostic test would yield only a 19% probability"

Isn't it ~16.1%? (95 * 1) / ((95 * 1) + (5 * 99))

In response to Higher Purpose
Aron23 January 2009 02:47:48PM-2 points [-]

Come buy your doohicky today, because at these prices, supplies won't last for long!

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