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In response to Wrong Tomorrow
Comment author: Aron 02 April 2009 05:11:08PM 1 point [-]

Long Bets is an older, rather sparse variation that publicizes bets made between public figures: http://www.longbets.org/

In response to An African Folktale
Comment author: Aron 16 February 2009 09:39:05AM 2 points [-]

I would estimate the intended reaction to be: "Well I don't act like these despicable characters!" and then "Oh wait - maybe I have..". To me it seems like a tale of the bad we can do, when we aren't thinking about it. Or to put another way, the difficulty of making our behavior consistent with our morality. I see little evidence that the underlying morality is any different from the west.

Comment author: Aron 13 February 2009 10:05:25PM 0 points [-]

to spare anyone the effort: I presume it's because they begin having children, and only future children are relevant.

Comment author: Aron 13 February 2009 09:39:08PM 0 points [-]

Why does the curve descend pre-adolescence? Doesn't an average 18 year old have higher long-term reproductive potential than an 8 year old?

Comment author: Aron 01 February 2009 07:55:25PM 0 points [-]

Alright, so we are headed for some variety of golden rule\ mutual defense treaty imposed to respect each others' values simply because there is reason to believe, if not provable, that there exists some OTHER force in the universe more powerful than the ones currently signing the treaty. This of course does not void 'friendly' attempts to modify unwanted behaviors, which added together with a 'will to power', would likely have civilizations drifting towards a common position ultimately.

Comment author: Aron 31 January 2009 03:12:03AM 2 points [-]

Great bouncing Bayesian Babyeater babies Batman!

In response to OB Status Update
Comment author: Aron 28 January 2009 07:59:54PM 1 point [-]

Sounds like a reasonable experiment. Nothing lasts forever. If Robin does indeed shut down, we've already lost the old OB. I suspect Eli wants a child that will actually grow up and leave the home. I predict the first sign of decay will be the upvoting of humor.

Comment author: Aron 28 January 2009 07:40:41PM 0 points [-]

..just saw the stat correction..

Comment author: Aron 28 January 2009 07:33:17PM 0 points [-]

Terrence McKenna was fond of saying essentially the same thing as Vaksel.

"1% occurrence, and 95% accuracy, a diagnostic test would yield only a 19% probability"

Isn't it ~16.1%? (95 * 1) / ((95 * 1) + (5 * 99))

In response to Failed Utopia #4-2
Comment author: Aron 21 January 2009 03:01:09PM 0 points [-]

The perfect is the enemy of the good, especially in fiction.

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