Comment author:gwern
14 August 2010 09:02:08PM
15 points
[-]
Questionable. Is smarter than human intelligence possible in a sense comparable to the difference between chimps and humans? To my awareness we have no evidence to this end.
What would you accept as evidence?
Would you accept sophisticated machine learning algorithms like the ones in the Netflix contest, who find connections that make no sense to humans, who simply can't work with high-dimensional data?
Would you accept a circuit designed by a genetic algorithm, which doesn't work in the physics simulation but works better in reality than anything humans have designed, with mysterious parts that are not connected to anything but are necessary for it to function?
Would you accept a chess program which could crush any human chess player who ever lived? Kasparov at ELO 2851, Rybka at 3265. Wikipedia says grandmaster status comes at ELO 2500. So Rybka is now even further beyond Kasparov at his peak as Kasparov was beyond a new grandmaster. And it's not like Rybka or the other chess AIs will weaken with age.
Or are you going to pull a no-true-Scotsman and assert that each one of these is mechanical or unoriginal or not really beyond human or just not different enough?
Comment author:Aron2
14 August 2010 10:06:28PM
0 points
[-]
The analogy that AGI can be to us as we are to chimps. This is the part that needs the focus.
We could have said in the 1950s that machines beat us at arithmetic by orders of magnitude. Classical AI researchers clearly were deluded by success at easy problems. The problem with winning on easy problems is that it says little about hard ones.
What I see is that in the domain of problems for which human level performance is difficult to replicate, computers are capable of catching us and likely beating us, but gaining a great distance on us in performance is difficult. After all, a human can still beat the best chess programs with a mere pawn handicap. This may never get to two pawns. ever. Certainly the second pawn is massively harder than the first. It's the nature of the problem space. In terms of runaway AGI control of the planet, we have to wonder if humans will always have the equivalent of a pawn handicap via other means (mostly as a result of having their hands on the reigns of the economic, political, and legal structures).
BTW, is ELO supposed to have that kind of linear interpretation?
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What would you accept as evidence?
Would you accept sophisticated machine learning algorithms like the ones in the Netflix contest, who find connections that make no sense to humans, who simply can't work with high-dimensional data?
Would you accept a circuit designed by a genetic algorithm, which doesn't work in the physics simulation but works better in reality than anything humans have designed, with mysterious parts that are not connected to anything but are necessary for it to function?
Would you accept a chess program which could crush any human chess player who ever lived? Kasparov at ELO 2851, Rybka at 3265. Wikipedia says grandmaster status comes at ELO 2500. So Rybka is now even further beyond Kasparov at his peak as Kasparov was beyond a new grandmaster. And it's not like Rybka or the other chess AIs will weaken with age.
Or are you going to pull a no-true-Scotsman and assert that each one of these is mechanical or unoriginal or not really beyond human or just not different enough?
The analogy that AGI can be to us as we are to chimps. This is the part that needs the focus.
We could have said in the 1950s that machines beat us at arithmetic by orders of magnitude. Classical AI researchers clearly were deluded by success at easy problems. The problem with winning on easy problems is that it says little about hard ones.
What I see is that in the domain of problems for which human level performance is difficult to replicate, computers are capable of catching us and likely beating us, but gaining a great distance on us in performance is difficult. After all, a human can still beat the best chess programs with a mere pawn handicap. This may never get to two pawns. ever. Certainly the second pawn is massively harder than the first. It's the nature of the problem space. In terms of runaway AGI control of the planet, we have to wonder if humans will always have the equivalent of a pawn handicap via other means (mostly as a result of having their hands on the reigns of the economic, political, and legal structures).
BTW, is ELO supposed to have that kind of linear interpretation?