BT_Uytya

(x-posted from my blog) Some people think that the problem with representativeness heuristic is a base rate neglect. I hold that this is incorrect, and the problem is deeper than that, and simple use of a base rate isn't going to fix it. This makes the idea about "look at...

Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: bayes, language and psychology, now with homework WHEN: 04 January 2015 03:00:00PM (+0400) WHERE: Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16 Hello there. If you don't have plans for the Sunday but aware of Bayes' theorem in odds form, you certainly will be welcome here....

(followup to What Bayesianism has taught me? and Bayesianism for Humans, relevant to Boring Advice Repository ) There are two insights from Bayesianism which occurred to me and which I hadn't seen anywhere else before. I like lists in the two posts linked above, so for the sake of completeness,...

(followup to What Bayesianism has taught me? and Bayesianism for Humans) There are two insights from Bayesianism which occurred to me and which I hadn't seen anywhere else before. I like lists in the two posts linked above, so for the sake of completeness, I'm going to add my two...

In the chapter 5 of the Probability Theory: Logic of Science you can read about so-called device of imaginary results which seems to go back to the book of I J Good named Probability and the Weighing of Evidence. The idea is simple and fascinating: 1) You want to estimate...

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/163nqk/nate_silver_is_doing_an_ama_tuesday_at_2_pm/ I'm really excited to see this. Nate Silver might be the most famous present day Bayesian statistician. UPD: It appears that author of the Reddit post deleted it for some reason. The link still works but it makes sense to post the link to the Nate Silver blog with...

At my English class everybody was supposed to make a short presentation about subject of one's choice. I decided to tell people about Cox's Theorem (heavily based on the introduction in "Probability theory: The Logic Of Science" by E T Jaynes and "Constructing a logic of plausible inference: a guide...