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In response to The call of the void
Comment author: BenFRayfield 31 July 2017 09:48:57PM 0 points [-]

We like to have power. You can jump or not jump. Its your choice. The more you consider jumping, the more power you have to choose between jumping and not jumping. Something you're already certain to do or not do lacks the feeling of a powerful choice.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 27 September 2016 06:58:50AM 1 point [-]

1 for all relevant possibilities, and an inner paint touching only part of that outer paint.

I don't get what the inner and outer paint stands for.

Comment author: BenFRayfield 29 September 2016 03:35:01AM 0 points [-]

Recursive conditional probability as in bayes rule.

Imagine paint as chance you spread across the world

-1 BenFRayfield 27 September 2016 02:29AM

People are not good at statistics. We tend to imagine more or less than 100% chance when dividing it between possibilities. Instead, try this:

 

If theres something certain to happen but less certain when, imagine a row of a calendar (or however you visualize sequential days) with different amounts of paint on certain days. Maybe its likely in the next few days but a small chance it could take a few weeks. So spread the paint in those proportions. Its always 1.0 total paint. For uncertainty, leave some of the paint blurred and you dont know where it is. As the days pass and the thing still hasnt happened, you move that chance somewhere onto the later days since its still 100% going to happen.

Or if it may not happen, use 2 colors of paint, 1 for all relevant possibilities, and an inner paint touching only part of that outer paint. If its 30% chance to happen, the inner paint touches 30% of the outer paint.

Recursively, we can think about combinations of events, places, things, and chances this way.

Comment author: BenFRayfield 02 September 2015 12:01:41AM 0 points [-]

Work is a failure case, a hole you dig yourself out of. You're doing things in the fun category when you see a danger coming. Your fun will end because you'll be hungry or lack a place to sleep if you dont fix the problem. This is especially true of people who can choose how much work they do and money to make instead of being trained into a schedule. "Work expands to fill all available time" --Parkinson's law. Its like a gas that spreads until you need to do a little more.

Comment author: BenFRayfield 02 August 2015 04:14:58AM 0 points [-]

If we extend the concept of making beliefs pay rent to structures in computer memory, then AIs could better choose which structures are more valuable than they cost when many objects are shared in an acyclic network. Each object at the bottom could cost 1, and any objects pointing at x equally share the cost of x plus 1 for themself. If beliefs are stored in these memory structures, then a belief would be evicted when its objective cost exceeds some measure of its value, and total value would be in units of memory available. When some beliefs are evicted, those they depended on would become more expensive to others who depend on them because the number of beliefs sharing the cost decreases. On the other hand, if many beliefs depend on a certain structure in memory, those many sharing the cost each pay less.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 November 2014 04:46:10AM 0 points [-]

I wish people were more scared of the dangers that cant yet be measured

Why?

Comment author: BenFRayfield 04 December 2014 11:57:31PM 1 point [-]

The map is not the territory, but most people are happy to take the lack of dangers on their map as evidence of the safety of the terrirtory, so they dont update their maps.

Comment author: BenFRayfield 10 November 2014 04:35:55AM 1 point [-]

I wish people were more scared of the dangers that cant yet be measured, like the chance a very large gamma ray could hit Earth for a short time then be aimed somewhere else. How do we know major extinctions in the past werent related to unknown behaviors of spacetime from outside where we measure? Or maybe the "constants" in the wave equations of physics sometimes vary. Is it really a good deal to let individual businesses hold the pieces of this knowledge to themselves instead of putting all our knowledge together to figure out whats possible?

Comment author: BenFRayfield 04 August 2014 07:05:07PM 0 points [-]

Often, jobs are created just before before increased production of valuable products in the same buildings and by the same people. Similarly, there is an increase in use of the company bathrooms which happens on the same days that more valuable products are built. From both of these, for the same reason, we could infer that creating jobs and using the bathroom more often stimulates the economy.