Comment author: BlueSun 02 July 2015 08:59:54PM 0 points [-]

Liberals see the free market as a kind of optimizer run amuck, a dangerous superintelligence with simple non-human values that must be checked and constrained by the government - the friendly SI. Conservatives just reverse the narrative roles.

I like this analogy. So basically, how do you want to balance the power between your two overlords, one much much smarter than you but with non-human values, and the other much dumber than you but with human (mostly) values.

Comment author: lukeprog 10 December 2014 12:27:21PM *  31 points [-]

LessWrong is getting ready to release an actual book that covers most of the material found in the Sequences.

To be more specific...

MIRI is preparing to release, in Q1 2015, an ebook version of The Sequences that has been pretty thoroughly proofread, rearranged to be a bit more concise and a lot more accessible to new readers, filled with short introductions to each newly defined 'sequence', and nicely typeset.

A hardcopy version (in multiple volumes) will follow, after readers have had some time to find the errors that we have missed. (An ebook file can easily be reissued with mistakes fixed; not so with hardcopy.)

This audiobook version produced by Castify (if the Kickstarter campaign succeeds) will be the official audiobook companion to the ebook and hardcopy versions. We've been in conversation with Rick about this for months, now.

Also, the book won't actually be titled The Sequences.

Comment author: BlueSun 10 December 2014 02:27:42PM 3 points [-]

Thanks. I'd love to share this material with people but the format makes it hard as many people seem to have an aversion to a collection of blog posts. I look forward to buying the book so I can loan it to people.

Comment author: BlueSun 27 October 2014 04:03:26PM 30 points [-]

Competed the survey. Thanks for doing this, the results are always interesting.

Comment author: ThrustVectoring 14 December 2013 03:12:26PM 1 point [-]

I've proofread three of the chapters. There are 340 of them in the version of the ebook that I was sent, and the whole thing runs over 2000 pages. At roughly 250 words per page, that's 500k words.

So, basically what alexvermeer said - pretty much all of them.

Comment author: BlueSun 23 December 2013 08:52:06PM 0 points [-]

Does anyone know what happened to the version that was supposed to be reviewed/edited down by a professional so it could be publishable length? There's so much good stuff there I'd love to be able to send to friend and family but 500k worth of blog posts is much harder to send someone than a nicely published 200k version.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 02 December 2013 04:17:55PM 9 points [-]

Things that we know that we don't know we know? I run into these all the time... last night, for example, I realized that I knew the English word for the little plastic cylinders at the end of a shoelace. (I discovered this when someone asked me what an 'aglet' was.) I'd had no idea.

Comment author: BlueSun 02 December 2013 04:50:45PM 1 point [-]

Yes but as soon as you thought of it it becomes a known known :)

Comment author: JackV 02 December 2013 11:51:43AM 9 points [-]

I don't like a lot of things he did, but that's the second very good advice I've heard from Rumsfeld. Maybe I need to start respecting his competence more.

Comment author: BlueSun 02 December 2013 03:16:14PM 18 points [-]

The "known knowns" quote got made fun of a lot, but I think it's really good out of context:

"There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know."

Also, every time I think of that I try to picture the elusive category of "unknown knowns" but I can't ever think of an example.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 22 October 2013 03:58:25PM 5 points [-]

I'd actually be surprised if LessWrong made many deconverts (though such people would be interesting to hear from, if they exist). The Sequences take atheism and a vague respect for rationality for granted, and focus on arguing about other topics. And the Sequences have shifted my beliefs around on some of those other topics, most notably Bayesianism.

The comparison to apologetics is more apt, I think, for sites like Rational Wiki, which Konkvistador aptly described as, "what a slightly left of centre atheist needs to win an internet debate... an ammunition depot to aid in winning debates."

Comment author: BlueSun 24 October 2013 03:42:42PM 9 points [-]

I deconverted in large part because of Less Wrong. Looking back at it now, I hadn't had a strong belief since I was 18 (by which I mean, if you asked most believers what the p(god) is they'd say 100% whereas I might have said 90%) but that might just be my mind going back and fixing memories so present me thinks better of past me.

I'd be happy to do an AMA (I went from Mormon to Atheist) but a couple of the main things that convinced me were:

  • Seeing that other apologists could make up similar arguments to make just about anything look true (for example, other religious apologists, homeopathy, anti-vaccines, etc)

  • Seeing the evidence for evolution and specifically, how new information supports true things. That showed me that for true things, new information doesn't need to be explained away, but actually supports the hypothesis. For example, with evolution discoveries such as carbon dating, the fossil record, and DNA all support it. Those same discoveries have to be explained away via apologetics for religions.

  • Bayesian thinking. I have an econ background so kind of did this informally but the emphasis from less wrong that once you see evidence against you need to actively lower your probability a bit really helped me. Before I'd done what EY pointed out where you take all of your evidence for and stacked that against this one evidence against and then when the next evidence against comes along you take all your evidence for and stack it against that one evidence, etc.

  • The value that I want to believe what is true. I had this before but wasn't as proactive about it.

  • Before I felt like my belief system was logical and fit the evidence and if someone didn't believe it was because they hadn't looked at the evidence and fairly considered it. Seeing people look at the evidence and then cogently explain why they still didn't believe gave me a "I notice I'm confused" moment.\

  • etc.

Comment author: BlueSun 17 September 2013 06:11:54PM *  3 points [-]

My take away from this is that you need to "shut up and multiply" every single time. Looking at the math skills study, the thought was that people glance at the raw numbers (instead of looking at the ratios) and stop there if they fit their ideological beliefs. If it conflicts with your beliefs though you spend a little longer and figure out you need to look a the ratio. So if we train ourselves to always "shut up and multiply" hopefully some of this effect will go away. Maybe a follow-up study to see if people who actually do the math still get it wrong?

Comment author: BlueSun 27 August 2013 08:59:27PM 1 point [-]

I'm already booked that day but if it's a weekly thing I wouldn't mind stopping by sometime.

Comment author: MugaSofer 21 August 2013 03:42:30PM 3 points [-]

I was about to post something similar, although I don't have kids myself.

In some sense, I'm already doing that. For the cost of raising three kids, I could have saved something like 250 statistical lives. So I don't know that our unwillingness to torture a loved one is a good argument against the math of the dust specks.

Huh. That's ... a pretty compelling argument against having kids, actually.

Comment author: BlueSun 21 August 2013 04:59:07PM 7 points [-]

Hmm, the microeconomics of outsourcing child production to countries with cheaper human-manufacturing costs... then we import them once they're university aged? You know you've got a good econ paper going when it could also be part of a dystopia novel plot.

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