Corrected Bayes explanation link: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes/

The biggest thing I think this article could use is a mention of Martin Seligman's research on optimism, which I've found to be extremely helpful: http://www.amazon.com/Learned-Optimism-Change-Your-Vintage-ebook/dp/B005DB6S7K/ref=sr_1_1

Learning how to be systematically optimistic is, I think, the only way to make a sustained change in this area.