The Fun Theory Sequence
(A shorter gloss of Fun Theory is "31 Laws of Fun", which summarizes the advice of Fun Theory to would-be Eutopian authors and futurists.)
Fun Theory is the field of knowledge that deals in questions such as "How much fun is there in the universe?", "Will we ever run out of fun?", "Are we having fun yet?" and "Could we be having more fun?"
Many critics (including George Orwell) have commented on the inability of authors to imagine Utopias where anyone would actually want to live. If no one can imagine a Future where anyone would want to live, that may drain off motivation to work on the project. The prospect of endless boredom is routinely fielded by conservatives as a knockdown argument against research on lifespan extension, against cryonics, against all transhumanism, and occasionally against the entire Enlightenment ideal of a better future.
Fun Theory is also the fully general reply to religious theodicy (attempts to justify why God permits evil). Our present world has flaws even from the standpoint of such eudaimonic considerations as freedom, personal responsibility, and self-reliance. Fun Theory tries to describe the dimensions along which a benevolently designed world can and should be optimized, and our present world is clearly not the result of such optimization. Fun Theory also highlights the flaws of any particular religion's perfect afterlife - you wouldn't want to go to their Heaven.
31 Laws of Fun
So this is Utopia, is it? Well
I beg your pardon, I thought it was Hell.
-- Sir Max Beerholm, verse entitled
In a Copy of More's (or Shaw's or Wells's or Plato's or Anybody's) Utopia
This is a shorter summary of the Fun Theory Sequence with all the background theory left out - just the compressed advice to the would-be author or futurist who wishes to imagine a world where people might actually want to live:
- Think of a typical day in the life of someone who's been adapting to Utopia for a while. Don't anchor on the first moment of "hearing the good news". Heaven's "You'll never have to work again, and the streets are paved with gold!" sounds like good news to a tired and poverty-stricken peasant, but two months later it might not be so much fun. (Prolegomena to a Theory of Fun.)
- Beware of packing your Utopia with things you think people should do that aren't actually fun. Again, consider Christian Heaven: singing hymns doesn't sound like loads of endless fun, but you're supposed to enjoy praying, so no one can point this out. (Prolegomena to a Theory of Fun.)
- Making a video game easier doesn't always improve it. The same holds true of a life. Think in terms of clearing out low-quality drudgery to make way for high-quality challenge, rather than eliminating work. (High Challenge.)
- Life should contain novelty - experiences you haven't encountered before, preferably teaching you something you didn't already know. If there isn't a sufficient supply of novelty (relative to the speed at which you generalize), you'll get bored. (Complex Novelty.)
[META] Proposed title keywords for Discussions
I propose the following title keywords for Discussion posts, to be included as I did with [META] in this one.
- META: Posts about LW, in general.
- DRAFT: Drafts of posts that may be promoted to the main LW, posted for comments and criticism.
- POLL: Polls and (essay question–type) surveys on whatever topics seem to merit that format.
- LINK: Discussions centered primarily around a linked webpage.
- HELP: Posts requesting help with some question or problem.
- QUICK: The same sort of content (with respect to topic and structure and style) that you'd post to main LW, but smaller and quicker, perhaps.
Feel free to propose others, debate the merit of the ones I've suggested, tell me that the whole thing is a stupid idea, etc.
This is not meant to replace the actual Tags system, which is good for arbitrarily tagging posts by topic. I see this as a way to allow us to quickly scan through the list of Discussions and know what general type of content to expect from each item. I don't expect that absolutely everything will need one of these keywords, but many/most of the things that have been posted in Discussion so far seem to be categorizable along these lines. And I don't intend by this to encourage specific types of content (e.g. if we get more polls as Discussion posts now as a result of having a [POLL] keyword, then it is not working correctly), I only suggest that it may be useful for organizing the things people are already using this section for.
Late Great Filter Is Not Bad News
But I hope that our Mars probes will discover nothing. It would be good news if we find Mars to be completely sterile. Dead rocks and lifeless sands would lift my spirit.
Conversely, if we discovered traces of some simple extinct life form—some bacteria, some algae—it would be bad news. If we found fossils of something more advanced, perhaps something looking like the remnants of a trilobite or even the skeleton of a small mammal, it would be very bad news. The more complex the life we found, the more depressing the news of its existence would be. Scientifically interesting, certainly, but a bad omen for the future of the human race.
— Nick Bostrom, in Where Are They? Why I hope that the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing
This post is a reply to Robin Hanson's recent OB post Very Bad News, as well as Nick Bostrom's 2008 paper quoted above, and assumes familiarity with Robin's Great Filter idea. (Robin's server for the Great Filter paper seems to be experiencing some kind of error. See here for a mirror.)
Suppose Omega appears and says to you:
(Scenario 1) I'm going to apply a great filter to humanity. You get to choose whether the filter is applied one minute from now, or in five years. When the designated time arrives, I'll throw a fair coin, and wipe out humanity if it lands heads. And oh, it's not the current you that gets to decide, but the version of you 4 years and 364 days from now. I'll predict his or her decision and act accordingly.
I hope it's not controversial that the current you should prefer a late filter, since (with probability .5) that gives you and everyone else five more years of life. What about the future version of you? Well, if he or she decides on the early filter, that would constitutes a time inconsistency. And for those who believe in multiverse/many-worlds theories, choosing the early filter shortens the lives of everyone in half of all universes/branches where a copy of you is making this decision, which doesn't seem like a good thing. It seems clear that, ignoring human deviations from ideal rationality, the right decision of the future you is to choose the late filter.
Akrasia Tactics Review
I recently had occasion to review some of the akrasia tricks I've found on Less Wrong, and it occurred to me that there's probably quite a lot of others who've tried them as well. Perhaps it's a good idea to organize the experiences of a couple dozen procrastinating rationalists?
Therefore, I'll aggregate any such data you provide in the comments, according to the following scheme:
- Note which trick you've tried. If it's something that's not yet on the list below, please provide a link and I'll add it; if there's not a link for it anywhere, you can describe it in your comment and I'll link that.
- Give your experience with it a score from -10 to +10 (0 if it didn't change the status quo, 10 if it ended your akrasia problems forever with no side effects, negative scores if it actually made your life worse, -10 if it nearly killed you); if you don't do so, I'll suggest a score for you based on what else you say.
- Describe your experience with it, including any significant side effects.
Every so often, I'll combine all the data back into the main post, listing average scores, sample size and common effects for each technique. Ready?
Study: Making decisions makes you tired
Related to: Willpower Hax #487: Execute by Default, The Physiology of Willpower
Making your own decisions makes you procrastinate more and quit sooner than when you're following orders:
Making choices led to reduced self-control (i.e., less physical stamina, reduced persistence in the face of failure, more procrastination, and less quality and quantity of arithmetic calculations). A field study then found that reduced self-control was predicted by shoppers' self-reported degree of previous active decision making. Further studies suggested that choosing is more depleting than merely deliberating and forming preferences about options and more depleting than implementing choices made by someone else and that anticipating the choice task as enjoyable can reduce the depleting effect for the first choices but not for many choices.
Med Patient Social Networks Are Better Scientific Institutions
When you're suffering from a life-changing illness, where do you find information about its likely progression? How do you decide among treatment options?
You don't want to rely on studies in medical journals because their conclusion-drawing methodologies are haphazard. You'll be better off getting your prognosis and treatment decisions from a social networking site: PatientsLikeMe.com.
PatientsLikeMe.com lets patients with similar illnesses compare symptoms, treatments and outcomes. As Jamie Heywood at TEDMED 2009 explains, this represents an enormous leap forward in the scope and methodology of clinical trials. I highly recommend his excellent talk, and I will paraphrase part of it below.
My Fundamental Question About Omega
Omega has appeared to us inside of puzzles, games, and questions. The basic concept behind Omega is that it is (a) a perfect predictor and (b) not malevolent. The practical implications behind these points are that (a) it doesn't make mistakes and (b) you can trust its motives in the sense that it really, honestly doesn't care about you. This bugger is True Neutral and is good at it. And it doesn't lie.
A quick peek at Omega's presence on LessWrong reveals Newcomb's problem and Counterfactual Mugging as the most prominent examples. For those that missed them, other articles include Bead Jars and The Lifespan Dilemma.
Counterfactual Mugging was the most annoying for me, however, because I thought the answer was completely obvious and apparently the answer isn't obvious. Instead of going around in circles with a complicated scenario I decided to find a simpler version that reveals what I consider to my the fundamental confusion about Omega.
Suppose that Omega, as defined above, appears before you and says that it predicted you will give it $5. What do you do? If Omega is a perfect predictor, and it predicted you will give it $5... will you give it $5 dollars?
The answer to this question is probably obvious but I am curious if we all end up with the same obvious answer.
A survey of anti-cryonics writing
(This was originally a link to a post on my blog, A survey of anti-cryonics writing. Eliezer asked me to include the entire text of the article here.)
For its advocates, cryonics offers almost eternal life. To its critics, cryonics is pseudoscience; the idea that we could freeze someone today in such a way that future technology might be able to re-animate them is nothing more than wishful thinking on the desire to avoid death. Many who battle nonsense dressed as science have spoken out against it: see for example Nano Nonsense and Cryonics, a 2001 article by celebrated skeptic Michael Shermer; or check the Skeptic's Dictionary or Quackwatch entries on the subject, or for more detail read the essay Cryonics–A futile desire for everlasting life by "Invisible Flan".
That it seems so makes me sad, because to my naive eyes it seems like it might work and I would quite like to live forever, but I know that I don't know enough to judge. The celebrated Nobel prize winning physicist Richard Feynman tells a story of a US general who spoke to him at a party and explained that one big challenge in desert warfare is keeping the tanks fuelled given the huge distances the fuel has to travel. What would really help, the general said, would be if boffins like Feynman could invent a sort of engine that was powered by sand. On this issue, I'm in the same position as the general; in the same way as a tank fuelled by sand seems plausible enough to him, it makes sense to me to imagine that however your brain stores information it probably has something to do with morphology and chemistry, so there's a good chance it might not evaporate right away at the instant of legal death, and that freezing might be a way to keep the information there long enough for future societies to extract it with their future-technology scanning equipment.
And of course the pro-cryonics people have written reams and reams of material such as Ben Best's Scientific Justification of Cryonics Practice on why they think this is exactly as plausible as I might think, and going into tremendous technical detail setting out arguments for its plausibility and addressing particular difficulties. It's almost enough to make you want to sign up on the spot.
Except, of course, that plenty of totally unscientific ideas are backed by reams of scientific-sounding documents good enough to fool non-experts like me. Backed by the deep pockets of the oil industry, global warming denialism has produced thousands of convincing-sounding arguments against the scientific consensus on CO2 and AGW. Thankfully in that instance we have blogs like Tim Lambert's Deltoid, RealClimate, and many others tracking the various ways that the denialists mislead, whether through cherry-picking evidence, misleading quotes from climate scientists, or outright lies. Their hard work means that denialists can barely move or speak without someone out there checking what they have to say against science's best understanding and pointing out the misrepresentations and discrepancies. So before I pony up my £25 a month to sign up to cryonics life insurance, I want to read the Deltoid of cryonics - the articles that take apart what cryonics advocates write about what they do and really go into the scientific detail on why it doesn't hang together.
Here's my report on what I've found so far.
A Much Better Life?
(Response to: You cannot be mistaken about (not) wanting to wirehead, Welcome to Heaven)
The Omega Corporation
Internal Memorandum
To: Omega, CEO
From: Gamma, Vice President, Hedonic Maximization
Sir, this concerns the newest product of our Hedonic Maximization Department, the Much-Better-Life Simulator. This revolutionary device allows our customers to essentially plug into the Matrix, except that instead of providing robots with power in flagrant disregard for the basic laws of thermodynamics, they experience a life that has been determined by rigorously tested algorithms to be the most enjoyable life they could ever experience. The MBLS even eliminates all memories of being placed in a simulator, generating a seamless transition into a life of realistic perfection.
Our department is baffled. Orders for the MBLS are significantly lower than estimated. We cannot fathom why every customer who could afford one has not already bought it. It is simply impossible to have a better life otherwise. Literally. Our customers' best possible real life has already been modeled and improved upon many times over by our programming. Yet, many customers have failed to make the transition. Some are even expressing shock and outrage over this product, and condemning its purchasers.
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