The most important story of January was Omnicron. The Washington Post has a good graphic. Built long before, but you can still see that cases are fading, deaths are not yet declining but they will be, and if you want relative COVID safety you might have a chance in a...
I’m writing this because many people are aware of the lump of labor fallacy and correctly reject it. But there are a number of scenarios around massive job reductions in AI that don’t rely on “we will simply meet fixed demand”, and I think it’s worth taking them seriously, and...
I am writing this up because a few people I talked with, in my view, have a slightly wrong model of agency decision-making in the federal government. In particular, some people think that as ICE becomes less popular, you should expect a retreat from their least popular activities, policies, and...
And Joseph came to the city of Bethlehem, looking for a room for him and Mary, to rest after their travels. But there was no room at the inn. No room with a friend, no room with family, and the inns were full. But one innkeeper did say that there...
re: The Future of AI is Already Written The essay makes two claims: firstly, that technology determines societal outcomes, and secondly, that the default world after high degrees of automation will be very good. The first has an extensive argument, while the second is a paragraph and a half of...
Grab Bag I read a thing? I can’t describe it more than that. There are very few words. Much happens. Strongly recommended. I turned 29 this month. Apparently my chances of surviving were about that of not getting a 1 on a d20? Politics and Policy I reread An Essay...
AI Congress had a hearing on AI: Gary Marcus, Sam Altman, and Christina Montgomery. My takeaways: 1. Congress sees what happened with social media regulation as a mistake driven by a failure to regulate adequately. There is bipartisan unhappiness on this point. They see AI as analogous in many ways,...