Comment author: WhySpace 02 October 2016 05:18:34PM 1 point [-]

The bit about EQ was particularly interesting.(Encephalization Quotient is the ratio of the volume encapsulated by the brain to the volume of the animal. It serves as a stand-in for IQ in extinct species. Humans have an EQ between 5 and 8.)

It should be possible to examine current organisms, and classify them based on EQ and whether they have opposable thumbs. For each category, we could look at what fraction display abilities like tool use, communication, vocabulary size, and passing the mirror self-recognition test.

For example, perhaps the average EQ=1 animal without opposable thumbs has a vocabulary of 2 (alarm cries and mating signals) and doesn't pass the mirror test. On the other hand, maybe half of EQ=4 animal with opposable thumbs display rudimentary tool use.

The actual range of abilities would give us our probability distributions for speculating about extinct animals. After some math to account for gaps in the fossil record 65+ million years ago, we should be able to estimate the probability that certain dinosaurs could use tools or pass the mirror test.

The hard part is determining the probability of developing civilization, given that a species displays certain marks of intelligence. We only have 1 data point, and anthropic principle makes it almost useless.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 02 October 2016 08:14:09PM *  4 points [-]

EQ is NOT the whole story. As I just noted above in another comment, there is amazing work on brain architecture coming out of the lab of Dr. Suzana Herculano-Houzel, a scientist studying neural structure across the vertebrates. I recommend her book, "The Human Advantage" and all the papers to have come out of her lab recently.

Three important things:

1 - Neural scaling laws differ from clade to clade. In a generic mammal, a brain 10x as large has only 4x as many neurons so there is diminishing returns to brain mass probably due to the need to maintain long connecting fibers. Primates break this relationship - all primate brains are roughly equally densely packed, and indeed are as densely packed as a generic mammal brain from a very small mammal. Something changed in primate embryonic development upwards of 50 megayears ago predisposing large primates to have much larger numbers of neurons (Practical example: turns out the cerebrum of an elephant is roughly equivalent to that of a chimp and the largest whales probably correspond to early homo erectus).

2 - Humans are actually incredibly generic primates. All of the pieces of our brains fall right on the primate trend lines in terms of size and cell number - our cerebrum is not oversized, its just that the cerebrum grows faster than other parts with increasing brain size across all the primates. We just happen to have the largest neuron number. And also, humans fall right on the body size to encephalization quotient trendline of all the primates, with only 3 primates falling off the trendline - chimps, gorillas, and orangutans are below the trendline with brains much smaller than you'd expect for their body sizes. She hypothesizes, for very sound reasons explored in their papers and her book, that this was due to energy constraints because brain tissue is energetically expensive, and that humans were able to get back onto the generic primate trendline and have brains as big as you'd expect for a primate of our body mass once we started cooking and could support the energy requirements of brain tissue.

3 - Birds are another clade that breaks the usual brain scaling laws. Their neurons do not get bigger with increasing brain size, much like primates, except that their neurons are ~6x as small as primate neurons. Thus, it turns out that corvids and parrots are packing brains equivalent to many monkeys that their EQ would never suggest.

Comment author: turchin 02 October 2016 12:04:33AM 3 points [-]

In the Trent's article even mentioned possible species of Dinos who may be able have intelligent explosion. http://www.strangehorizons.com/2009/20090713/trent-a.shtml

It means that we could find really interesting (and dangerous) things during excavations in Antarctica?

Comment author: CellBioGuy 02 October 2016 08:05:25PM *  5 points [-]

In the hypothetical scenario in which there was something to find in Antarctica in the first place, given the thorough scraping the continent has gotten for 20+ megayears by kilometers-deep glaciers you can't expect to find much at all. The areas not covered by glaciers are generally mountains which erode - their modern exposed surfaces would have been quite deep underground at the time.

The sorts of things you could actually expect to find would be more along the lines of missing coal seams, long rods of long-ago-oxidized steel poking vertically through multiple strata into areas that would have held petroleum deposits at the time, really deep coal seams turned to ash in situ by underground gasification, hydrothermal features that concentrate copper and silver ore capped by weird craters that obliterate where the highest concentrations would have been with a big pile of copper-depleted gravel nearby. Perhaps odd isotope ratios in a very narrow sediment band if nuclear reactions were ever explored. The ecological effects you would expect on the continent are kind of overshadowed in the ocean sediment record by the worldwide climate event that the PETM represents (6C temperature spike, deep ocean hypoxia, phytoplankton death and repopulation).

It's worth noting that there are probably particular clades that are predisposed to being smart. There's a fascinating book out by Dr. Herculano-Houzel ("The Human Advantage") detailing recent work over the last decade examining brain structure across the mammals. She and her group found something fascinating: neural scaling laws differ from clade to clade. Mammals in general have a neural scaling law that if you make a brain 10x as large, it only has 4x as many neurons as the neurons on average increase in volume (partially due to longer connecting fibers). Primates break this though - all primate neurons are about the same size, which is remarkably small, the same size as that of a mammal that's like 10 grams in mass. A large primate brain is MUCH more powerful than a generic mammal brain of the same mass. Their recent work since that book came out indicates that birds also break that scaling law and have marvelously efficient brains - all bird neurons are approximately the same size like the primates, but what's more that size is 6x as small as those of primates. It is an interesting question if this would also have applied to dinosaurs, their close relatives who nonetheless were not under crazy selective pressure for low weight.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 01 October 2016 11:41:19PM *  6 points [-]

Worth noting:

Possibly indicating that the end of the last glaciation rather than new invention drove the more or less simultaneous large-scale agricultural transitions that occurred all across the old and new world ~10k years ago.

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 01 October 2016 08:22:06PM 0 points [-]

Good job with the main idea. However your speculation about past tech civilizations on Earth, artifacts preserved on moon etc. seems only half lucid.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 01 October 2016 11:32:37PM *  6 points [-]

My favorite crazy unlikely idea about that is that the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum 50 megayears ago - a 200k year pulse of high CO2 levels and temperatures in which the CO2 was added over a timescale of less than 10k years (potentially much less) and had an isotopic composition consistent with having been liberated from biogenic deposits - could theoretically be explained by all the coal and oil deposits of Antarctica being burned followed by some positive feedbacks kicking in.

(Most land of Antarctica never having been investigated geologically in any detail at all due to being under kilometers of ice) (And Antarctica at that time being completely unglaciated and relatively temperate despite being where it is now by then) (And subsequent glaciation having scraped most of the surface clean of anything that was on it at the time)

We have an advantage in that we evolved in the tropics - you can take a tropical animal and keep it warm near the poles by wrapping it in clothes. It's much more difficult to take a cold-adapted polar animal and keep it alive in the tropics...

Comment author: ChristianKl 24 September 2016 09:45:10PM 0 points [-]

There seems to be a sizable amount of people in the census who consider that there's a decent probability that there's another intelligent civilisation in our universe.

When it comes to existential risk discussions, there often the argument that existential risk is important for the future of intelligent life. If there's other intelligent life out there, is existential risk still as important?

Comment author: CellBioGuy 25 September 2016 06:30:02AM 0 points [-]

Important to who? Any intelligent system wants to stick around as long as possible in an indifferent universe.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 25 September 2016 06:18:03AM *  7 points [-]

Astrobiology bloggery got interrupted by a SEVERE bout of a sleep disorder, developing systems to measure metabolic states of single yeast cells in order to freaking graduate soonish, and having a bit of a life for a while.

Astrobiology bloggery resumes within 1 week, with my blog moved from thegreatatuin.blogspot.com to thegreatatuin.wordpress.com, blogger being completely unusable when it comes to inserting graphs and the like. Dear gods I'm excited, the last year has seen a massive explosion in origin of life research and study of certain outer solar system bodies. To the point that I'm pretty sure the metabolism of the last universal common ancestor has been figured out and the origin of the ribosome (and therefore protein-coding genetics) as well.

Advice on running personal wordpress account welcomed.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 04 September 2016 04:48:41PM 0 points [-]

There is a distinct possibility that information on the nature of the big bang simply does not survive to the present day.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 13 June 2016 04:13:59PM 6 points [-]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25458-blood-of-worlds-oldest-woman-hints-at-limits-of-life

Possible clues about limits of lifespan but also how to possibly get around those limits and how people might stay healthier longer.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 16 June 2016 08:00:40PM 0 points [-]

In van Andel-Schipper’s case, it seemed that in the twilight of her life, about two-thirds of the white blood cells remaining in her body at death originated from just two stem cells, implying that most or all of the blood stem cells she started life with had already burned out and died.

Fascinating. I'd be interested in more measurements of the population structure of hematopoietic stem cells with age. It would be integrating to see if this is a purely stochastic process of lineage loss and expansion with time, or if particular lineages reliably grow faster and crowd out the competition.

Comment author: gwern 02 June 2016 10:36:49PM *  5 points [-]

"Scientists Announce HGP-Write, Project to Synthesize the Human Genome":

The publication occurred on Thursday by the journal Science.

The authors of the proposal said that the ability to fabricate huge stretches of DNA would allow for numerous scientific and medical advances. It might be possible to make organisms resistant to all viruses, for instance, or make pig organs suitable for transplant into people.

The project, which will be run by a new nonprofit organization called the Center of Excellence for Engineering Biology, will seek to raise $100 million this year from various public and private sources. Organizers declined to state the ultimate cost of the project, though it could conceivably exceed $1 billion....The organizers of the HGP-Write project hope to do much the same with DNA synthesis, reducing the cost more than 1,000-fold in a decade. Still, even if such progress is made, it might cost several million dollars in 10 years to completely fabricate one human genome.

...But George Church, a professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School and one of the organizers of the new project, said that if the changes desired are extensive, at some point it becomes easier to synthesize the needed DNA from scratch. “Editing doesn’t scale very well,” he said. “When you have to make changes to every gene in the genome it may be more efficient to do it in large chunks.”

I don't think I need to elaborate on the importance of this, here.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 04 June 2016 01:33:55AM *  0 points [-]

The main big thing to come from such a thing would be cheaper synthesis of long pieces of DNA. God I want that. The last three months in the lab would've been so much less painful. I'm mostly with the guy from Ginkgo Bioworks arguing that the ability to make tens of kilobases at a time is most interesting - chromosome sized DNA chunks are damn hard to move in and out of eukaryotic cells reliably.

Comment author: Andy_McKenzie 23 May 2016 01:31:00PM 8 points [-]

I used ingres's excellent LW 2016 survey data set to do some analyses on the extended LW community's interest in cryonics. Fair warning, the stats are pretty basic and descriptive. Here it is: http://www.brainpreservation.org/interest-in-cryonics-from-the-less-wrong-2016-survey/

Comment author: CellBioGuy 02 June 2016 07:17:32PM *  2 points [-]

It is hilarious and yet quite predictable that one of the only groups nearly as unenthused about cryonics as 'committed theists' was 'biologists'.

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