Sequences

Random Attempts at Apllied Rationality
Using Credence Calibration for Everything
NLP and other Self-Improvement
The Grueling Subject
Medical Paradigms

Comments

King, Warrior, Magician, Lover: Rediscovering the Archetypes of the Mature Masculine is the classic reading  recommendation for archetypes. 

It's worth separating what people actually believe about how altruistic other people are from what they pretend to believe about the altruism of other people. 

If you ask someone whether they believe that there's a chance that their partner would cheat on them, they are most likely to tell you that their partner would cheat on them. The same person might take a few signs that point in the direction of their partner cheating as a huge problem.

I would also expect that beliefs differ a lot between people.

I know someone, who was working at a company that does food testing in Germany. 

When it comes to pesticides, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) set maximum amounts, German authorities set more stringent rules on the allowed pesticides and then German supermarkets overperform by requiring even stronger limits. 

On the other hand, the standard techniques that are used to pick up contaminants in food do not pick up microplastics. There are no official limits exposed by EFSA for microplastics. 

If you think that low-effort good spectrometers will give you good information about microplastics pollution or poisoning attempts by skilled attackers, I think you overrate what you could detect that way. 

Theranos was built on the idea that you can detect a lot if you combine microfluid technology alone with spectrometers and they failed despite investing significant research money.

While in theory, you can easily motivate people in politics with money, it tends to corrupt the process. 

If you look at what happens in student self-governance, people usually aren't doing it because they are motivated by money but by ideas.

You have people who are motivated by ideas of inclusion and equity. It's not because those people direct subsides or direct payments but because their belief in the ideas and they get esteem from their peers for persuing those ends.

To make real progress at governance you would need people who primarily care about governance.  

The idea about the American Antarctic base or a governing a village both require a decent amount of political capital to start. 

You would need someone who's both interpersonal skilled, intellectually curious and cares about governance as his most important political end. From there you can start with getting involved in various different government efforts. Then blog about it and provide advice for other people who need to create governance for the institutions they create. 

I just don't see the feasibility in accounting for a practice effect when retaking the IQ test is also directly linked to the increased score you're bound to get.


How do you think controlled experiments work?

Yes, he realizes and it would have been easy for you to know by reading. He had a control group that also took IQ tests to factor out training effects. 

There are many organizations that need governance that most of the time still are not interested in experimenting with governance.

If you for example take student self-representation at universities, the structures are very similar in every US university because nobody really cares about experimenting with them. People have other priorities then experimenting with new governance systems. 

To calculate probabilities you need to define terms very clearly. "(we are in a 2nd cold war)? is a vague claim where the terms are not clearly enough defined for probabilities. 

That sounds like it made sense at the beginning but now the data set should be large enough that a higher dimensional approach would be better?

I'm surprised that it's one-dimensional as that should be relatively easy for the game. If the attacker cares about promoting Israeli interests or Chinese interests they can just cast a lot of votes in the other right/left direction on topics they don't care about. 

Did they write anywhere why they only consider one-dimension?

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