Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto?

12 Cosmos 06 March 2014 11:33PM

Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.

Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.

This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!

So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?

Comment author: Raemon 03 November 2012 03:33:36AM *  -1 points [-]

Amused that Saliency of all people is getting accused of being phygish.

In response to comment by Raemon on Less Wrong Parents
Comment author: Cosmos 03 November 2012 03:54:10PM 0 points [-]

I know, right?? laughs

Comment author: Cosmos 02 October 2012 09:05:12PM 0 points [-]

Then someone pointed out that since we responded out loud, there may have been an anchoring effect here.

This is standard epistemic hygiene - have everyone come up with an answer quietly before saying it out loud. (I suspect our natural inclination against lying is enough to keep people honest.)

Link: Toward Non-Stupid, Non-Blank-Slatey Polyandry

11 Cosmos 06 September 2012 09:06PM

http://theviewfromhell.blogspot.com/2012/09/toward-non-stupid-non-blank-slatey.html

The author gives a shout out to Less Wrong as a community with a perpetually skewed gender ratio, which is precisely the conditions under which polyandry appears to thrive.

Discuss. :)

Comment author: Yvain 15 August 2012 02:39:59AM 3 points [-]

Availability heuristic seems related, but still doesn't explain why delusions are so much more fixed than ordinary conclusions.

I think dreams are also a good parallel for psychosis, but it's hard to tell how good without having been psychotic.

Comment author: Cosmos 16 August 2012 12:53:19AM 2 points [-]

To continue with the bias theme, how about confirmation bias? They settled on the most available theory that fits all the facts, and then it becomes part of their identity, they begin to rally the soldiers. Is their delusion that they are Jesus really that much less sticky than someone's political party?

Comment author: Yvain 15 August 2012 02:35:49AM 1 point [-]

I don't know the technical differences between TMS and TDCS, but http://flowstateengaged.com/ looks promising.

Comment author: Cosmos 15 August 2012 04:08:06PM 3 points [-]

TDCS isn't depolarizing neurons with magnetism, it doesn't disable brain regions at all. Instead it is running a direct current across them. This appears to permanently increase or decrease its level of excitability. o_O

Comment author: Cosmos 14 August 2012 09:58:24PM *  6 points [-]

Yvain, it seems like some of this is potentially answered by how this interacts with other cognitive biases present.

Re: specific delusions, when you have an entire class of equally-explanatory hypotheses, how do you choose between them? The availability heuristic! These hypotheses do have to come from somewhere inside the neural network after all. You could argue that availability is a form of "priors", but these "priors" are formed on the level of neurons themselves and not a specific brain region: some connection strengths are stronger than others.

I would not wish brain damage on anyone, but should one of us have that unfortunate circumstance befall us I would be extremely inclined to go talk to them. I am so damn curious what this feels like from the inside! I am somewhat embarrassed to admit that the thought of having to build completely new neural connections to get around existing damage sounds like an insanely interesting challenge...

I also wonder about reasoning our way out of delusional states. The closest parallel that most people have access to would be the use of various psychoactives. I have heard multiple reports of people who have reasoned their way out of delusional conclusions on cannabinoid agonists and 5-HT2A agonists (and dopamine agonists, with lesser evidence).

The most difficult challenge would appear to be kappa opioid agonism, a dissociative state induced by the federally-legal herb salvia divinorum. Most users report being unaware they ingested a substance at all, no awareness of having a body, and no concept of self-identity, coincident with extreme perceptual distortions. I am no longer clear what Bayesian reasoning would even look like for some points in mindspace.

Edit: I thought of another relevant state: delirium induced by anticholinergics. Unlike 5-HT2A agonists where people do not confuse perceptual distortions for reality, in delirious states people do routinely believe that what they are perceiving is actually occurring. Unfortunately these states are widely regarded as unpleasant, and no rationalist I know personally has experimented with sufficiently large doses of anticholinergics.

Comment author: MBlume 13 August 2012 06:02:38AM *  25 points [-]

Where are we on selectively/temporarily/safely de-activating brain regions? Magnetic field to the RDPC sounds like it'd be <s>fantastically fun at parties</s>extremely informative under the right circumstances.

Comment author: Cosmos 14 August 2012 09:41:51PM 6 points [-]

I had the exact same thought myself back in 2008, so I asked an experimental psych professor about this. At the same, he said that the TMS devices that we had are somewhat wide-area and also induce considerable muscle activation. This doesn't matter very much when studying the occipital lobe, but for the prefrontal cortex you basically start scrunching up the person's face, which is fairly distracting. Maybe worth trying anyway.

I've wanted to get my hands on a TMS device for years. Building one at home does not seem particularly feasible, and the magnetism involved is probably dangerous for nearby metal/electronics...

Comment author: Cosmos 17 July 2012 08:00:09PM *  7 points [-]

EDIT: now you can get a free credit score from https://www.creditkarma.com/ with no strings attached. Welcome to the future!

You can get a free credit report once/year here:

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This will give you your full credit history, but not an actual FICO score.

You can get a free FICO score by signing up for this trial:

http://www.myfico.com/

...and then printing up a copy and immediately cancelling it here:

https://www.myfico.com/help/contactus.aspx

In my own search, I used this free general rental application:

http://www.ezlandlordforms.com/documents/application_forms/

Comment author: RobertLumley 11 July 2012 02:27:09PM 7 points [-]

You might want to pm this directly to lukeprog to make sure that he sees this comment. Since you replied to Vaniver, he may have not seen it, and this seems important enough to merit the effort.

Comment author: Cosmos 13 July 2012 03:46:28AM 0 points [-]

Thanks for the excellent idea! I did in fact email Lukeprog personally to let him know. :)

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