Comment author: multifoliaterose 18 January 2012 01:35:13PM 4 points [-]

Why do you bring this up?

For what it's worth my impression is that while there exist people who have genuinely benefited from the book; a very large majority of the interest expressed in the book is almost purely signaling.

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 18 January 2012 02:33:49PM 1 point [-]

It would be easier to discuss the merits (or lack) of the book if you specify something about the book you believe lacks merit. The opinion that the book is overly hyped is a common criticism, but is too vague to be refuted.

It was a bestseller. Of course many of those people who bought it are silly.

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 17 January 2012 03:29:52PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: breckes 16 January 2012 09:08:53PM 3 points [-]

In fact this talk and the others in the same series have been transcribed and published as a book: “The character of physical law”; here is a direct pdf link.

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 16 January 2012 10:46:53PM 1 point [-]

Here is another snip from the text. It is from lecture # 3 The great conservation principles.

"For those who want some proof that physicists are human, the proof is in the idiocy of all the different units they use for measuring energy." (p 75 of the 1967 MIT press edition)

link to a Feynman video (and a 2nd (distantly related) video)

3 Craig_Heldreth 16 January 2012 06:00PM

Video presentation from 1963 at Cornell. Character of Physical Law #2 The Relation of Mathematics to Physics.

This may be the best one of all the Feynman videos. He explains how physicists do mathematics and distinguishes how physicists do math from how mathematicians do math. He describes the two flavors as Greek and Babylonian.

The money quote if you don't have time to watch it: "Physicists do Babylonian mathematics and pay little attention to precise reasoning from fixed axioms."

Comment number 1; the quality of the video ain't all that great--in particular there is an annoying very small synch error which is just large enough to be definitely noticeable. Nevertheless it is absorbing because of the power of his presentation. The occasional audience shots show an audience transfixed. They also show the majority of the people wearing eyeglasses.

Comment number 2; in his earlier days his working class New York accent seemed far more obvious. I am reminded of Art Carney from The Honeymooners. (That is a four minute clip.) Feynman was born in Queens in 1918. Carney was born in Mount Vernon in 1918.

Comment author: satt 13 January 2012 01:25:16AM 11 points [-]

Religion had a grip on 99.5% or more of humanity until 1900,

Is this true? How could one know?

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 14 January 2012 03:40:51PM 4 points [-]

This is a question where fiction might give us more insight than fact. If you read realistic novels from the 19th century you will find right away that many of the characters are atheists or agnostics. The gold standard novel is War and Peace which contains only one overtly religious character (Maria Bolkonskaya) if I recall correctly. More than one of the characters is overtly atheist. Tolstoy could put this into fiction when his counterparts in the Physics department and the Philosophy department and the Political Science department would not dare to say it.

Comment author: Geoff_Anders 10 January 2012 03:45:21PM 8 points [-]

Short answer: Yes, CT is falsifiable. Here's how to see this. Take a look at the example CT chart. By following the procedures stated in the Theory and Practice document, you can produce and check a CT chart like the example chart. Once you've checked the chart, you can make predictions using CT and the CT chart. From the example chart, for instance, we can see that the person sometimes plays video games and tries to improve and sometimes plays video games while not trying to improve. From the chart and CT, we can predict: "If the person comes to believe that he stably has the ability to be cool, as he conceives of coolness, then he will stop playing video games while not trying to improve." We would measure belief here primarily by the person's belief reports. So we have a concrete procedure that yields specific predictions. In this case, if the person followed various recommendations designed to increase his ability to be cool, ended up reporting that he stably had the ability to be cool, but still reported playing video games while not trying to improve, CT would be falsified.

Longer answer: In practice, almost any specific theory can be rendered consistent with the data by adding epicycles, positing hidden entities, and so forth. Instead of falsifying most theories, then, what happens is this: You encounter some recalcitrant data. You add some epicycles to your theory. You encounter more recalcitrant data. You posit some hidden entities. Eventually, though, the global theory that includes your theory becomes less elegant than the global theory that rejects your theory. So, you switch to the global theory that rejects your theory and you discard your specific theory. In practice with CT, so far we haven't had to add many epicycles or posit many hidden entities. In particular, we haven't had the experience of having to frequently change what we think a person's intrinsic goods are. If we found that we kept having to revise our views about a person's intrinsic goods (especially if the old posited intrinsic goods were not instrumentally useful for achieving the new posited intrinsic goods), this would be a serious warning sign.

Speaking more generally, we're following particular procedures, as described in the CT Theory and Practice document. We expect to achieve particular results. If in a relatively short time frame we find that we can't, that will provide evidence against the claim "CT is useful for achieving result X". For example, I've been able to work for more than 13 hours a day, with only occasional days off, for more than two years. I attribute this to CT and I expect we'll be able to replicate this. If we end up not being able to, that'll be obvious to us and everyone else.

Thanks for raising the issue of falsifiability. I'm going to add it to our CT FAQ.

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 10 January 2012 08:10:20PM 2 points [-]

Do you have html for those documents? PDF is OK for me, but my guess is html is more openly accessible.

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 03 January 2012 07:15:17PM 0 points [-]

More references to Cannabis research.

Hard to come by because of the legal restrictions. The best sources I have seen:

Altered States of Consciousness edited by Charles Tart, 1969, Wiley.

Pharmako/Poeia by Dale Pendell, 1995, Mercury House.

They include pros and cons although it is obvious both guys are at least a little more pro than con. From Pendell's book: "Smoking it occasionally makes you wise; smoking it a lot turns you into a donkey." (p.199)

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 02 January 2012 08:30:35PM 0 points [-]

neural irregularities as pink noise, which is also called 1/f noise

A few minutes of fooling around with a color tool will show you that the spectrum of pink is flat (white) with a notch at the green and the 1/f spectrum is brown, nothing at all resembling pink. The misnomer of pink to label 1/f seems to come from a misconception that flat + a pole at red is pink (it's not--it's red) and 1/f (it's not--it's flat with a pole at red).

It is a pity this idea has gotten so much traction into the English language as it is so horribly wrong. It's like one of those things that Pauli would describe as "not even wrong."

Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 07:29:34PM *  20 points [-]

90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 01 January 2012 05:34:19PM 11 points [-]

Thank you for the link to Silver's piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 31 December 2011 06:51:46PM *  0 points [-]

The Super Bowl will not be Packers over Patriots in February 2012.

P=~.8 (80%)

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